We are about at the a=c level which is about the same level of the break up target (arrows). So would not be surprised to some down correction now or soon. Feedback appreciated.
I think your analysis is spot on. Many things lining up. WTI late in timing band for ICL...may have just printed a DCL yesterday. a bounce to the upside until Friday or Monday next week and then a pivot downward would most likely signal a left translated Daily Cycle and the mid 50's pullback. USD 'DXY' is also signalling the end of it's Intermediate Cycle. It may have printed, but price action seems to be signalling one more nose dive to bring in the bottom, perhaps Friday (giving oil that little bump) - then DXY likely to go bullish for a 2 or 3 weeks after that before turning down again... the sooner the pivot down again, the quick the resumption of commodities prices.
This is my opinion. Let me know if you agree. thanks.
goodguy
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@faronf, I think you are right on. I appreciate you taking the time to share you opinion with me. Best to you. Have a great weekend coming up.
@faronf, If WTI keeps falling what do you think will happen to natural gas?
faronf
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@goodguy, natural gas is a tough one... I wouldn't speculate far out on Natty. I'd say up, very near term... (maybe short lived though) We are technically still in bearish territory on the weekly charts, if we break that level things could get interesting, however, we could see lower gas prices yet because US producers are unlikely to slow oil production, especially with a weaker dollar...net result: more gas. Not only that, Saudi has a vested interest in higher oil prices this year because of their Eramco IPO. Being well below 5yr running inventory levels, another deep freeze and large draw this month could lead to a sustained higher price level this year compared last few years if exports remain strong, it would be hard to make up that differential near term. Just my perspective, i'm no professional analyst be any means.
This is my opinion. Let me know if you agree. thanks.