I see this pattern going back for years The lower level of the VIX curls in an upward trend until it reaches a boiling point and we get a big spike Sometimes the spikes are big, sometimes they are small The biggest spikes ( ie S&P crashes) usually happen when the VIX curl starts lower, around 11 The current curl started at around 15
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The VIX still has not dropped below the Curl We may still be in for a big spike