In the last days and weeks overall fear indicators showing that bets and fears on a shortime drop of global stockmarkets had been rising dramatically.
The main reasons - and all are geopolitics:
- Trumps tradewars on China, NAFTA, Europe - Geopolitical tensions on Syria, North Korea, Russia - Upcomming First round of election in France
What traders missed: Stockmarkets "underlying" - Global economic Data. This data and upcomming earnings still comming in above expectations. In the next tradingdays better than expected economic data will meet fears wich might be much overdone. Once more.
APR 17 2017 - China has more options to press North Korea than people think, says former CIA China analyst China has more options to press North Korea than people think, says former CIA China analyst
Extreme fear: During the last five trading days, volume in put options has lagged volume in call options by 31.10% as investors make bullish bets in their portfolios. However, this is still among the highest levels of put buying seen during the last two years, indicating extreme fear on the part of investors. Last changed Apr 11 from a Fear rating Updated Apr 17 at 2:33pm
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17.04.2017 - Wall Street rises as earnings take focus from geopolitics
Quote: NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rose on Monday after the S&P 500 closed the previous session at a two-month low, in a broad rally lead by recently beaten-down bank and tech shares. Market focus shifted from geopolitical tension to earnings, with several Dow components, including Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), General Electric (NYSE:GE) and Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ), scheduled to release results later this week. Source: investing.com/news/stock-market-news/futures-dip-on-soft-u.s.-data,-geopolitical-risks-474631
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APR 17 2017 - Todays market action:
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APR 18 2017: Geopolitics vs. underlying fundamentals:
APR 18 2017 - VIX maybe confirming short term stop of rising volatility:
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Closing Print on April 18 2017:
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APR 18 2017- Long ledged Doji. Closing price on wednesday 19th of April above the candle means up trend is going to continue. Closing price below todays low means the trend is reversed. Also this pattern is an so called "inside day" means where the move will go the following trading day the trend will accalerate.
Excellent analysis. I enjoyed your rationale as well. I'm long, and have been long, XIV. You posted at the height of the VIX rally, great and impressive timing.