I went back to the last 7 times where there was a preliminary spike in the VIX, followed by a bigger or a similar size spike, then measured the distance between the 2 points.
It was measured from the peak of the initial spike, to the start of the next spike.
The average was 37 bars (weeks). We of course had a relatively big spike around August last year (2015), and 37 weeks from then is about to come around in just 2 weeks from the publishing date of this chart.
Does probability forecast another big(ger) spike coming very soon?
Will the markets crash or correct in May 2016? We shall soon find out :)