For over a month, oil has been hovering right around the channel’s midline, leaving the market indecisive. We have two scenarios for this situation. Since this analysis is on the daily timeframe, it could take several weeks for either scenario to play out—or it could happen overnight.
To get a clearer picture of oil’s next move, we’re focusing on the daily chart:
Scenario 1 – Breakout to the upside (our preferred scenario)
If the price breaks above the channel’s top and confirms it, we can follow the move up to around $68 according to the classic channel pattern target.
This scenario is our priority because it offers a larger target and higher profit potential.
Scenario 2 – Move toward the bottom of the channel
If the price moves downward, we can follow it to the channel’s bottom, but naturally, the target is smaller.
Why do we prefer a long position in a downtrend?
The reasoning is entirely fundamental:
Instability in the Middle East increases geopolitical risks, which usually drives speculative demand for oil.
For this reason, the upside breakout scenario is considered worth taking, even if the overall structure remains bearish.
To get a clearer picture of oil’s next move, we’re focusing on the daily chart:
Scenario 1 – Breakout to the upside (our preferred scenario)
If the price breaks above the channel’s top and confirms it, we can follow the move up to around $68 according to the classic channel pattern target.
This scenario is our priority because it offers a larger target and higher profit potential.
Scenario 2 – Move toward the bottom of the channel
If the price moves downward, we can follow it to the channel’s bottom, but naturally, the target is smaller.
Why do we prefer a long position in a downtrend?
The reasoning is entirely fundamental:
Instability in the Middle East increases geopolitical risks, which usually drives speculative demand for oil.
For this reason, the upside breakout scenario is considered worth taking, even if the overall structure remains bearish.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak bertujuan, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat atau cadangan kewangan, pelaburan, dagangan atau jenis lain yang diberikan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca lebih dalam Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak bertujuan, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat atau cadangan kewangan, pelaburan, dagangan atau jenis lain yang diberikan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca lebih dalam Terma Penggunaan.