Gold - Reminiscences of 2016

FX_IDC:XAUUSD   Emas/Dolar U.S.
I still think Gold has unfinished business on the downside.
This sideways / slightly upside movement feels reminiscent of 2016.
In 2016 Gold bottomed after its first decline on October 7th, and toped on November 9th .
This year it bottomed on October 6th , and the bounce has thus far toped on October 16th.

I´m watching price action closely over the next few days and would like to short around 1290-1305, with sl 1316.
CoT is still bearish , i would be suprised if Gold bottomed here and has the strength to move to higher highs.

It almost seems too obvious, as it would be a repeat of last year, but i would like to see a steep decline into the first two weeks of December.
Ideally a slight break of the July low and a test of the triangle uptrend line.
I think once 1260 breaks longs will capitulate.
Komen: Time to find out if friday was real or fake. Can Gold hold 1288?
What a Bull Trap. My first target is 1237, should Gold indeed break down in the coming days. (FOMC Minutes on Wednesday)
False Breakout!? Expecting some bounce here, tomorrow is friday. Let´s see if Gold can finally move below 1260 next week. Silver is already at the October lows.
Komen: Patience certainly paid off with this one. Taking some profits.

Idea Berkaitan

This is looking very bullish to me now . Any ideas ?
It is testing this area again ... It looks like a sell right here , what do you think ?
poka.star91 poka.star91
@poka.star91, Hmm , just notice that USD tanked today so now I am confused ; I suppose USD and Gold can go in same direction for awhile anyway ?
AnRuaN poka.star91
@poka.star91, this is some serious whipsawing, got me confused too, did not expect the market to come back to this area this fast after Monday. As planned with this idea, I shorted last friday, have put my sl for my shorts at 1305 now. I agree, looks like a sell, even if it breaks out i just don`t see it running that far, maybe gap close at 1340s? Gold could not make higher high even tho uj made lower low.
@AnRuaN, This is frustrating . I was short around 1288 and I bailed because some other guys I don't trust said they are going short . They are always wrong so I bailed . Any idea if we can get another entry ?
AnRuaN poka.star91
@poka.star91, This is still not an easy trade. Trading range and triangle not broken yet. Gold could definitely see 1282-87 before more down. I think a lot depends on tax vote.
How are you feeling about this ? Looks like fake breakout higher coming soon ?
AnRuaN poka.star91
@poka.star91, yeah still possible. At this point i think the best approach is to look for the end of the correction in the dollar, maybe it has already bottomed on Nov 15. Bollinger bands are tightening on gold daily, so there should be some action soon. Looking for Durable Goods and FOMC Minutes next Wednesday as a possible trigger. If anything, this anemic movement by gold while dollar and uj corrected has strengthened my bear view. What are u thinking?
@AnRuaN, honestly it feels bullish right now especially if it closes like this . How far it goes I am not sure .
AnRuaN poka.star91
@poka.star91, lets see, its Friday. Feels to me like Oct 13. But uj looks ugly for sure.
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