It was a busy Friday and Saturday on the markets. My bets are still on the gold shorts - at least for one more week... While everyone was waiting for the results of the tax bill gold bounced USD dropped hard on Friday.
Dec.1. Michael Flynn pleads guilty to making false statements to FBI about conversations with Russian ambassador WHITE HOUSE: 'Nothing about' Flynn's guilty plea 'implicates anyone other than Mr. Flynn' Stocks tumbled, gold spiked USD dropped on report that Flynn is prepared to testify against Trump Michael Flynn is now cooperating with Mueller — and could fuel the obstruction case against Trump ABC News corrects a critical detail in its report on Michael Flynn's plea deal Trump blasts ABC News reporter Brian Ross over 'horrendously inaccurate and dishonest report’ on Michael Flynn
Dec.2. Senate passes tax bill in massive step forward REPUBLICANS REJOICE AFTER SENATE PASSES TAX BILL IN MAJOR WIN FOR TRUMP
As the result of tax bill was only after market close the effect of it will be seen only after today's market open. After breaking the blue trendline (Thursday)price bounced back into the channel but the close was exactly on the trendline. So this bounce on the Flynn news might had been a final shakeout before the real drop. We bounced near from the 200 SMA last Friday. I suggested to book some profit at 1270-72. I reentered into the full short position at the market close at 1280,5 on Friday
After the senate passed the tax bill and we have FOMC approaching with a rate hike on the 13th of December I think the chances are high gold will drop in the following 2 weeks. If we don't get the drop until the 15th of December I will question we can get any drop into the ICL... I really would like to see gold's price below 1260 in the following week otherwise our chance for a severe drop is thin.
Komen
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Now.
Komen
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If it’s not breaking then never.
Komen
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Komen
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Bouncing from the previous DCL. Its not over yet. We need to run those stops
Komen
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Running the stops. At the end of the day I got what I wanted for weeks.
Komen
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NFP tomorrow. We’ve seen billions of tricks here. So as we jumped in and out almost petfectly I have the luxury to take profits on 25% of the position here at 1251.50.
Komen
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Komen
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I dont think it’s over yet. If there is a bounce I will sell this 25% again. If not the 75% is more than enough.
Komen
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Closing 25% of the original position based on RSI hourly oversold. We are getting close to FOMC. Not willing to risk too much money on Wednesday.
Komen
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Still having the 50% of the original short position.
Komen
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Komen
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Just a note: I will get out of all short position if we get one more long red candle near to the close or during the European night session. It could be similar what we had yesterday and 2 days ago - I highlighted by red arrows. The target could be around 1230...
Komen
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Back in full short position again at 1255.
Komen
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I still have a feeling it's not ready yet. One more lower low needed
Komen
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Holding shorts.
Komen
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H&S broke down
Komen
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Now we have the fuel to test 1200.
Komen
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The critical point will be the green circle. I will update if I close shorts at that point...
Komen
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LOw volume breakout from the flag. High volume selling reversed the breakout in 1 hour. So we have a bulltrap now.
Stubbornly ignoring the ICL will only results in bigger losses.
chartwatchers
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@lord_kinbote, Im already in ptofit. Sold the breakout at 1261. And not 1 LOT. :)
You will not get 2 mild ICL in a row. I might close my shorts today to make you easier to hold your JNUG. But I will not go long.
lord_kinbote
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@chartwatchers, The dollar is disconcerting, for sure. I am grateful for your trade ideas, very nice work. Saying there will not be two mild ICL's is crystal ball voodoo. Gold does not rocket out of the ICL like the stock market does, it is a process and why everyone was second guessing the ICL in July. Good luck with your positions.
chartwatchers
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@lord_kinbote, . “Gold does not rocket out of the ICL like the stock market does” very true
Thats why no need to rush for a long position. I will have at least 1 more possibility to buy at 1230-40. Maybe 2. The july ICL was messed up byTrump and later Kim.
lord_kinbote
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@chartwatchers, That is the good thing about gold, it does typically provide plenty of opportunities to get long - so you don't have to take unnecessary risks (like getting long before FOMC). I am not sure about the 1230-1240 regions, I think the ICL struck 1 day before ICL, but it will be interesting to watch. GL and again thanks for doing what you do.
@chartwatchers Arpi, with all due respect my good friend, the July ICL wasn't messed up by anybody.. You just got it wrong and your ego is trying to make excuses.
Some of us (myself included) got it right and it wasn't out of sheer luck :) In fact, I remember posting a ton of charts highlighting the obvious during that time but you kept fighting it.
chartwatchers
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@Nightstar, :D trust me I made more money on the short side back down speculating with Kim. A very few was talking about drop at 1354. I was.