GOLD - North Korean Games

OANDA:XAUUSD   Emas/Dolar U.S.
Crazy dictator or Mastermind ? Foolish blackmailer or defender of his nation?
I leave this question open : time will tell. We don't know it right now, but we have to trade it.
I always wonder why people are betting on a nuclear holocaust. I do not think all those who bought gold at 1350-60 in the hope of 1.400 and 1.500 in a week have asked themselves: is there anyone who pays my gold long positions if there was a nuclear war?
You can hate KimJong-un . You can say he is crazy. You might think he wants to destroy the civilized world with a nuclear attack.
But come on . Think a little bit all the way: why would a 20M nation go against the whole world...?

I say all what he is doing is just trying to protect his country against an invasion. It's not the best way but we have to say it is effective.
If you have nuclear weapons noone will invade you if you don't attack.

I think KimJong-un is ready. By now the whole world knows he has a working nuclear weapon. He also has missiles . He can shoot over Japan.
So he is good. He didn't attack anyone he just showed he can attack. As he is well educated I'm quite sure he made a few coins on the gold pop.
So by now he has as much plutonium as he wants... Last night's missile launch made no sense at the first sight. But watching Friday's close it looks to me someone exited the long position or entered short position in that midnight bounce. The momentum was killed immediately after the bounce. Only one person knew that's a good point to enter a short position or close the long positions: KimJong-un .
The volume of this period 3 times higher than the average volume . (Berlin time 23:00-3:00). With a stop run I would say that's a normal volume after a missile launch... But there was no stop run.

If my speculation is right I think we are going to have a de-escalation of this North Korean situation next week. It will have more effect on gold than the FOMC, or the dollar drop/bounce because 2/3 of this rally was produced by these North Korean Games .

Technically we are attacking the lower trendline again. It's a double resistance zone as the 100 EMA is also at this level...
During the last few weeks as soon as price tagged the 100 EMA it bounced almost immediately and surged higher.
This time we have a character change:
1. After price nearly tagged the 100 EMA (09.12) it has bounced and tested back the neckline.
2. This was followed by a drop to the trendline and the 100 EMA again: this time the 100 EMA was broken down.
3. A bounce is coming again (Friday's missile launch) - this is the bounce where I think KimJong-un exited the gold longs or entered the short position ( maybe both) and the second tag of the neckline was followed by one more drop.

The RSI is oversold though but this is the point it can be oversold for days. I'M watching the MACD : it's turning down. While we are in the negative territory at the MACD the decline continues...

We closed exactly on the trendline . And I think this time the trendline will be broken down violently. Especially if KJ is aiming the de-escalation of the NK situation next week....

Komen: Trendline is broken, and we are below the 100 EMA.
We haven't been below 100 EMA for 2 months...
Komen: I think we are going to close near the lows (1305) but there will be a bounce in the Asian session (1310-1312).
And tomorrow we will look below 1300...
Komen: Seems like a flag to me:
It was a flag and broke down...
Komen: The balance sheet reduction is the last nail in gold's coffin.
Komen: I told you a few weeks ago this is coming.
Komen: The FED will suck out the free money from the system.
This is the preparation for the next recession.
Komen: I was waiting for the FED to announce reducing the balance sheet at Jackson Hole.
It was too early. They were waiting for this moment to announce.
Komen: In this idea I explained why is it bullish for the dollar and why is it bearish for gold.
SO now it will be very interesting
Komen: If the dollar printed the ICL and will have a rally for a few weeks gold will print an ICL. How is it possible?
The triangle screwed the cycle count.
Every puzzle in its place now.
Dagangan ditutup secara manual: Kim called me. He is out of his shorts.
Heard his dad's favorite meal was roasted donkey. Make sure to his son a few slices.
Well done on the short CW!
Well done, Arpi ! I was bullish 2 days ago and give no chance to you, but you was right ! So you are out now ? End the $ countertrend ? Time to buy Gold again ?
@rzvfx, you might play the bounce with a small position from here (1280). But there is no guarantee it will pop.
Just like that? What do you mean by you out from this short game?
@Lil_Moskva, I might enter a short position later. 50% FIBO is always a good point for a bounce.
Lil_Moskva chartwatchers
@chartwatchers, 50% in which timeframe? I notice you just play with lower timeframe
@Lil_Moskva, Fibo 50% is the same at every time frame: 1280.
Put the FIBO RETRACEMENT on the daily chart.

Does he listen Katy Perry songs like a real dictator when he rides a tank ;-) ?
very impressive
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