Gold has made it up to 1225 this week. The purple zone is the first strong resistance zone for GOLD to pass. Only if GOLD can make it through , it can still target 1260 inside the channel by wave 5. If gold shows us some bear sign on the purple zone, it will look down to the green zone to make a triple bottom or to make a new low. As our target 2 hit already, we could just keep the trade with 0 risk to see if something good happen ( tp3 hit).Or wait for bear signal for gold to retest the green zone again.
good trade~
fundamentally, i'm open to both 1160 or 1300 re-test, major catalyst will be the Trump-Xi meeting at month end. Silver reached $14 as i expected but no follow through to the downside, while gold tested 1200 and rebound.
Price action is turning bullish after this week's reversal. Spec positioning are very much net short (which could be a contrarian indicator). If next week we continue to rally, a surprise Trump-Xi cooperation could trigger a major short covering rally to 1300. Alternatively, if next week it heads back down toward 1200, i will be expecting a 1170 retest. Dollar looks like it has topped with a negative divergence high and heading back down to 95 level, which will give gold some tailwind. imo, if price breaks 1240, it's quite likely the lows are in.
Next week is quite important imho. Cheers.
FUNTRADER-Vera
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@howard1127, Thank you for sharing your ideas here. I love your fundamental triggers. 1300 will be retested. The issue right now is will it be retested in 2018 or 2019.
Cheers!
TruKING852
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@FUNTRADER-Vera, thank you. Fundamentally, i believe Gold will bottom when Fed stopped hiking rates, which could be sometimes in early 2019, so i tend to agree with your wave analysis. We go on wave 5, and will face strong resistance at 1260. There "should" be a final leg down on gold that will capitulate all gold bugs imho.
fundamentally, i'm open to both 1160 or 1300 re-test, major catalyst will be the Trump-Xi meeting at month end. Silver reached $14 as i expected but no follow through to the downside, while gold tested 1200 and rebound.
Price action is turning bullish after this week's reversal. Spec positioning are very much net short (which could be a contrarian indicator). If next week we continue to rally, a surprise Trump-Xi cooperation could trigger a major short covering rally to 1300. Alternatively, if next week it heads back down toward 1200, i will be expecting a 1170 retest. Dollar looks like it has topped with a negative divergence high and heading back down to 95 level, which will give gold some tailwind. imo, if price breaks 1240, it's quite likely the lows are in.
Next week is quite important imho. Cheers.