Our bottom is confirmed by today's swing. After a shallow pullback on Sunday night price bounced higher. Most of the day was spent by printing a flag/ range on the hourly chart and we closed near to the daily top.
What happened exactly? After the first 2 daily cycles we printed a DCL last Friday and bounced from the 100 MA almost tagging the triangle trendline and the 200 MA. The level where the rally started from was the FIBO 61,8%.
Today we not just had a swing but a trendline break of the daily down trend line. By printing one more green 10$ candle we are having a 3 white soldier formation. So tomorrow will be important : I would like to see if we are able to print the 3 white soldier formation by the close or not...
Fibonacci worked pretty well at the decline. I will use the FIBO on our way up too. As of today we just tagged the 23,6% retracement. We can spend 1-2 days here. If we really stop now and cannot print the 3rd green candle tomorrow: it will show weakness...
The next level is the FIBO 38,2% (1298) and after that the FIBO 50% at 1309,5 and the false swing level at 1213$. During the next few days we need to watch very carefully how we rally to these price points... I think the bulls don't have to worry about their position this week. Even if it's a dead cat bounce we will tag minimum 1298-1309 during the next few days.
LONG FOLLOW THROUGH idea
Komen
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Komen
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FIBO 38,2% was close but we couldn't tag it
Komen
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The 3rd white soldier is a disabled one. Not a good sign that we couldn't hold all the gains into the close.
Komen
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I think our flag is ready to break higher.
Komen
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RSI is overbought. We need to break above 1300. Th FED MInutes can be the trigger for this
Komen
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***** RSI is oversold...
Komen
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2 hours later:
Komen
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Going to break to new highs on the hourly in the Asian session.
This is not a dead cat bounce, this will get us above 1400 till end of December.
chartwatchers
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@bullsbabybulls, Hopefully yes, I'm with you but we've seen many tricks in gold during the last 3 years. I don't think big players are going to make it easy this time.
popshvt
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thanks arpi you are the best
Mo-Sid
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Thanks Arpi for sharing your idea. Wednesday there is FOMC,what’s your take on how it will have an impact on the current bull train, since this FOMC will be the minutes from the last months meeting where we had a massive decline on GOLD prices?
chartwatchers
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@Mo-Sid, we might give back some of the gains tomorrow but I dont think will close the position on day 3.
Mo-Sid
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@chartwatchers, Thanks Arpi for your input much appreciated.
AhmedKhattab
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Thanks Arpi, great analysis
I think its right to use fib levels in the retracement.
but its wrong to use these level (0.236, 0.382 ... 0.786) in the up trend
chartwatchers
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@AhmedKhattab, I'm watching this pop as a pullback based on currencies. Might change this opinion if this turns out to be really bullish.