$1500 CRASH FINAL DRAFT (3666, 2166) & CONTINUOUS COVERAGE

semalam

This drop today put one more twist in this route, but it's not obvious that blue will win yet. This is because price can still reverse to yellow route. The rule here says until bold black line breaks, yellow should be favorite. This is technically true. But From 1 hour bar, the writing is on the wall that says 3000 won't come until second half of March. Which means that the following retrace should be 2770.

This would be enough to cap the final high at 3666 and force the low to test very long term mean average at 2166. So final stats for this draft are:
- swing up starts 3/20 or later
- with the low coming in at 2770-2790 is BLUE ROUTE
- FOR YELLOW ROUTE, 2870 MUST HOLD FROM HERE THROUGH 03/25
- medium-long math favors yellow
- daily/weekly favors blue
- my call is blue
- there are 2 highs, a May/June high and an august high
- May/June high is 3250-ish (very late May, very early June) same for yellow/blue
- August high is 3658-ish but I chose 3666 so it's easy to remember
- final low depends on high
- if high is 3777+ then low will be 2222-2415
- if high is 3666- then low should come in 2160-2222
- and low should hit before Thanksgiving or 11/25-ish
- this post is labeled as long bc we have to do the +875 first
- but the MAIN IDEA is 1500 retrace (doesn't matter which high 3500-4000)
- in a very small time frame (like 110 days total)

FROM HERE ON OUT -
- chart at top is the ENTIRE RANGE OF 2-WAY VOL
- which means that whatever the final route is...
- will either look like yellow or blue OR IN THE MIDDLE OF BOTH
- in the previous 3 posts, I've thoroughly discussed the data
- for very long, long term, medium term, etc...
- if you want back ground links are on this page somewhere
- but from here on out
- this page is dedicated only to 22-min and 8-min bar coverage
- or daily price action within context of chart at top
- we start with THE BREAK OF THE CURRENT BULL TREND
- or bold black line in chart at top pointing past 3666

semalam

Nota

semalam

Nota

CONTINUOUS COVERAGE
1) first important date is next Tuesday
2) that's bears' only window to break black trend line
3) chart above BLUE ROUTE NEEDS UNDER 2855
4) by NEXT TUESDAY
5) to have 3000 hold at top channel
6) when bulls attack top of channel a third time
7) will add notes when I can

semalam

Nota

8) 4:32 PM 2916.xx, so at top of this page I wrote that until black line breaks
9) this move still favor yellow route
10) which is:

semalam

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11) this is last note I wrote before this post:

semalam

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12) so we already did 2890, and now moving for 3030
13) because bears don't have enough to break that line yet
14) so in the chart before this one from my phone, that yellow move looks like this

semalam

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semalam

Nota

15) so in chart above is why I said my call was blue even though black line has NOT BROKEN
16) so the call is:
a) to 3030 by 3/15
b) break black line to 2890 again
c) bounce to 3000 by 3/25
d) then we hit the moment of truth 3/25, do we follow gray route (best fit yellow route)?
e) or do we check down to 2790
17) this is THE ONLY QUESTION LEFT BEFORE MOVING FOR 3100 AND 32XX
18) my call is red route in chart above to 5/20
19) which means price starts out yellow route to 3/25
20) and then blue rest of way to 5/20
21) there is WAY TOO MUCH NOISE to get beyond that to make a call
22) but remember how this works
23) it's either yellow or blue OR BOTH (in the middle)
24) I just think a 3025-3040 top is ASKING FOR 2780-2790 check down

semalam

Nota

25) this is so very early to say
26) but I think at 5/21-ish, it switches back to yellow again
27) this will all make sense when you replay chart at top in December

semalam

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14 jam lalu

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1) so yesterday I wrote that bears' only window to stop a high over 3000
2) is BY NEXT TUESDAY
3) what is meant by this is to cap the ceiling for March under 3000
4) bears needed to make 2855 by next Tuesday
5) bc bounce after that would stall without challenging top of channel at 3023++
6) this matters bc to get to 2790, bears NEED TO SET UP FOR IT
7) they DO NOT HAVE ONE YET
8) then I wrote that until black line breaks yellow should be favored
9) then showed what that would mean with red route
10) which is yellow changing tongue after 3/25
11) this will NOT WORK for bears... that route will hold at 2865 OR HIGHER
12) so bears only window is NOW TO TUESDAY
13) examination of 8-min bar shows bears have a 40% shot
14) at 2855 BY MID DAY MONDAY

13 jam lalu

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9/26, 10:10 AM ET, so if you look at the chart right above last one
15) where I wrote "-moving for 3030", and so on...
16) the black line was not hit yesterday
17) this WAS WRONG bc I moved it somehow lately by accident
18) well from 30-min bar:

12 jam lalu

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40) the short term actual move is rarely what we want
41) but we can definitely get tight limits for it, because remember...
42) if you zoom WAY OUT like this:

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43)

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44) and the reason I called blue route when I wrote this post at the beginning
45) is because BLUE ROUTE IS THE ONLY PATTERN WE GET A TOP 3555-3666
46) why does this matter?
46) I have a VERY VERY LONG TERM SIGNAL that say the check after the high
47) should be 2160-2222, which is under the 45-year line at 2415-2425
48) to have a realistic shot of getting under the 45-year line
49) price needs to top at 3666 or less
50) after 3666 it's 3777 (low 23xx), 3850 (low 2425), 3970 (low 2480-25xx)

11 jam lalu

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74) that's the last time I will dwell into long and very long term notes
75) and I had to, to explain the meaning in blues vs yellow/orange/red hi-lights
76) and their effects on highs and lows for August and November (or later, as late as Valentines Day 2026)
77) when we hit the low, whether that bre 2160-25xx (entire range of outcomes)
78) THIS WILL BE THE LAST ENTRY FOR 25000
79) there is only one outcome I have not clarified
80) that is if price decides to move in 4xxx FIRST
81) which would mean 4600 but should be closer to 5100
82) the only way that would be realistic is:

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5 jam lalu

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5 jam lalu

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83) so dark blue I made into skinny light blue
84) it IS still leading and has about 36 hours OR LESS to break under 2890
85) AND IT MUST STAY THERE, IF NOT...
86) 86 updated orange is favorite THE REST OF THE WAY

3 jam lalu

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