GOLD 01/10-03/08 BREAKOUT DRAFT 1 untuk FX_IDC:XAUUSD oleh Binary_Forecasting_Service

GOLD 01/10-03/08 BREAKOUT DRAFT 1

INTRODUCTION - This is the 01/14/24 binary, 15-min bar, ten-day ultra detailed, CONTINUOUS & EVOLVING FORECAST CONTINUOUS EVOLVING FORECAST for direction and shape of price action in FX_IDC XAUUSD gold ticker. I have talked about this explicit time frame for twenty months. Trend maps called the low in aftermarket of Thursday 01/11 and is currently allowing nine trading days to complete a break out setup. This map shows what is implied by all trends combined for this time frame and conclusive break out on Friday, 01/26.

DETAILS - So Thursday afternoon I posted the "parabolic arc" idea. We iced that one Friday afternoon because gold posted another disappointing close. My references who are experts on cycles suggested that 01/10 was the first day so "low in" on 01/11 is the apparently the move I am looking for. If that's the case,then the ceiling and for February is going to be 23xx while the retrace test to close February will put us around 2100 again. To summarize, the gold bull market will not truly get going until March 1st.

WARNING - This material is for experienced and responsible traders only. If you have any question in your mind if you are either experienced or responsible, THEN THIS IS NOT FOR YOU. As precaution, the first rule of trading is don't lose money. As reminder, the second rule of trading is DO NOT forget the first rule. As prerequisite, please familiarize with this process first before applying to your strategy. As usual, this MUST be used with continuing notes posted throughout duration of this forecast to supplement but NOT REPLACE your trading discipline and risk management. If the frequency of updates and limit of update feature does not satisfy your risk profile, then THIS IS NOT FOR YOU. As always, when price action disagrees with forecast meaningfully to you, THEN SCRAP THE FORECAST IMMEDIATELY and trade defensively. If you have a question on what meaningfully means in this context, then I repeat for a third and final time, THIS IS NOT FOR YOU.

Nota

01/14, 4:28 PM ET, WHY ORANGE ROUTE IS POSSIBLE:

AND 5 MONTHS FROM NOW IF BULLS ARE LEGIT IN 10 DAYS:

Nota

AND 24 MONTH PLAN:

RUMORS OF A PIVOT, PART 4, POST-PIVOT FINALE

Nota

4:44 PM ET - Markets open at 6 PM, but closes tomorrow AT 9:30 AM ET (when regular NY would have open) for MLK day and reopens 6 PM ET tomorow.
1) not expecting a lot
2) but should still move up in our favor like this:

3) in chart above
4) the straight horizontal part is closed

Nota

6:12, first reaction not good for bulls
a) that first move up not going to happen early
b) trying to find some strength

Nota

6:32, sideways to down for another 2 hours
a) still aiming for 2064 midnight to 3 am
b) this is projected to make a double top look ahead of tomorrow's 6 PM open

Nota

9:21 PM 2053.XX hit the replay on chart at top
a) if it's updated, it have just now "broke into the blue" from middle of blue orange
b) so odds now increasing that we move to 63-65 overnight
c) but we cannot get far because the "standard deviation" limits are right there
d) plus this is not a normal night bc of 9:30 AM ET close tomorrow
e) so the "light volume that plays God at 3 AM" might not show up at all
f) so then if price makes it there, it stalls and sideways to down"
g) but if it holds the "sideways part long enough"
h) then we DON'T HAVE THE DOUBLE TOP LOOK when it closes in the morning
i) does that make sense?
j) like this:

Nota

k) so in chart above:
l) we want the blue look when markets reopen 6 PM ET TOMORROW NIGHT
m) that way we only get a small dip and then to 77 and 88
n) if can't "hold the sideways move"
o) then we probably go back down to 48-50 again tomorrow night before heading up again
p) that's NOT a big deal normally
q) BUT IT IS FOR THIS WEEK
r) bc it can change the OVERALL LOOK OF THE SETUP

Nota

10:52 PM 57.20
a) getting all kinds of "top soon" signal from 30 second, 1 and 2 min bars
b) so when?
c) let me see, either just now... or

Nota

d) I have 4 topping signals within 90 minutes, so ...
e) it's almost 10:56 PM and 2057.54 as I type
f) that would mean top before 12:30 AM ET
g) it's hard to see this thing make 61 or 62 in that time frame
h) that doesn't mean we can't hit 65 between 2:30 and 9:30
i) but that's not a lot for me to stay up for
j) and, it's not getting far, in all projections from 1, 2, 4, and 8 min bars..
k) we are STILL HERE tomorrow night about the same time too
l) so good night

Nota

m) volume trends says this getting ready to go nowhere
n) I will add notes in the morning and we will pick it back up after 6 PM tomorrow

Nota

01/15, 1:29 AM ET, 2056, NOW GOING TO ATTEMPT 63-65
a) say 3-4 hours
b) so by 6 AM already topped and retracing
c) again, tomorrow night should be right around here again 55-58

Nota

9:24 AM ET, that attempt stopped cold at 58-59 ahead of 4 AM, about to close in 6 minutes
a) if you replay chart above, this failure to make 63-65 IS A PROBLEM b it leaves " us in the middle again"
b) if I account for all trends all time, blue wins without a doubt
c) if I mine for turning signals, orange is the warning here
d) so while I think we are going blue I am totally ready to accept its failure
e) waitaminite...

Nota

9:31 AM, I AM WRONG ON CLOSING HOURS...
a) it's not 9:30
b) it's 1:00 PM ET, we only lose 3 hours
c) I SWEAR I READ 9:30 AM ET when I checked last week, what in the world...

Nota

f) continuing from 9:24 AM, if blue does not follow through here...
g) it's going to get ugly

Nota

9:52 AM to be 100% clear where we are today
a) so we are 2052 as I type
b) the next 23 hours of trading - which will put us at NY CLOSE for Tuesday - is EXTREMELY IMPORTANT
c) consider this contrast between 08/20, 03/22, 5/23 highs, and today:

Nota

d) in chart above, the small circle is where black crosses purple/navy
e) the big circle is where both black and purple/nave crosses orange
f) we are there right now
g) but it's also true that the look now is different
h) see that rectangle where black tries to break through puple/navy...
i) IT NEVER DID FOR THAT STRETCH...
j) so this time is different is just a MIRAGE...
k) we have a legit topping process on a 30-40 trading day basis
l) but we account FOR EVERYTHING ELSE, we have a legit breakout process
m) AND WHICH WAY THIS GOES AND HOW IT GOES...
n) is forecasted in chart at top

Nota

11:03 AM 2053.XX THE BURDEN OF PROOF
a) bulls HAVE TO WIN the next 24-30 trading hours (by moving near 2088 midnight Tues into Wed) in order to...
b) keep pace for chart at top (short term), 5-month chart and 2-year chart (near the top)
c) missing this move in 24-30 hours will almost definitely scrap ALL OF THAT
d) with the exception being a semi-miraculous move to be on time for 01/26 IN A DIFFERENT WAY
e) NOT IMPOSSIBLE but odds for bulls starting falling quickly and massively (70-80%, on a 7-trading day basis)
f) I said at the top that my references changed my view of what the 01/10-03/08 window should look like
g) I had thought once we hit this time frame, immediate break out and massive rally after massive rally)
h) they are said once we hit, setup first, then rally, reversal, rally, then retest, then finally once we hit 03/0, BEGIN TO RALLY AGAIN
j) but difference in "setup by" time is only 1/10 and 01/25
k) and we are 01/15 now, and the blue route at top is - in my judgment - take up 90% of the possible routes for this setup
l) IF WE DON'T MAKE THIS MOVE next 24-30 hours, that 90%, 72 of that 90 is history
m) and bulls have 18+10 left over so 28% of CURRENT ODDS TO MAKE 01/26 break out on time

Nota

n) and most of the remaining 28% REQUIRE BULLS TO HOLD 2055
o) in other words bears push this under 2046 and and hold it in next 6-8 hours
p) TIME OUT ON THIS WHOLE BULL STORY... and maybe over
q) just to give you a clear picture of where we actually are
r) bc that two weeks extra is not really 2 weeks
s) miss tomorrow's move and the question becomes:
t) WHAT IS THE DO OR DIE SCENARIO?
u) and this is probably why "DO OR DIE" scenarios means die 10:1

Nota

01/15, 12:28 PM, CLOSING IN 32 MIN, SO CURRENT EXTRAPOLATION:

a) for chart above, missing the first blue area on the left not great
b) but route is live and dark blue is current extrapolation
c) I told a new guy the other day that it's not the size the move, IT IS WHEN DOES IT HAPPEN
d) 2055 AS I type and looking for 2088 in 36 hours, or 1 AM WED
e) make this move here and the ODDS TOTALLY CHANGE
f) I'll save numbers for later so we don't jinx this thing

Nota

4:26 PM ET the added bars after 1 PM make it look like this now, with the updated binary:

a) so in chart above light blues are same as before
b) regular blue combines all previous blues into one
c) dark blue is what the added bars seem to say
d) oranges make the updated binary

Nota

8:03 PM ET 2050.44 , support needs to show up here
a) or we will slip into new orange route
b) I can't handicap it right now

Nota

8:55 PM ET 2051.XX
a) we somehow got here kind of quickly
b) while it's not "straight down", it's down without a doubt

Nota

01/15, 10:38 PM ET, 48.xx so it's following orange, now for the obvious question
a) so I said in the morning that not taking blue route has the rest of bull routes looking like 28%
b) but we can't hold 2050s ... I don't even know what the odds are
c) I can't even find a realistic route up without a major surprise move (aka, miracle)
d) so all we can do now is play it by ear
e) and that means:

Nota

1/15, 11:03 PM ET 49.XX, if you replay the chart at top...
a) I' going to bed, I don't have risk on
b) when I wake up, I would not be shocked that it reverses up here bc pattern is still holding
c) but it's not clear in the trend maps anymore and is basically do or die RIGHT NOW
d) so it's just not worth the effort

Nota

e) obviously we need new maps all around tomorrow

Nota

01/16 9:48 AM ET 37.XX so followed orange route like expected
a) if you've read my material enough
b) I've said for many times that you either get the move right
c) or you usually get THE MIRROR IMAGE of the move
d) if it is turning point (bull to bear, bear to bull) then price reflects forecast over a straight line
e) if it is not turning point (but short term mirror image) then price reflects forecast over a curved diagonal line
f) so...

Nota

g) like this:

h) in chart above, if this is THE END for bulls
i) we take orange route, which is the reflection over a straight (horizontal line)
j) but if it's not, then reflection is over a bullish "curved diagonal)
k) so that's how we will know
l) including today, we have 8 days to finish the setup
m) so bulls running out of routes
n) and also I realize that on a 30-40 day basis, this is like a 10% move or less
o) so it is essentially "DO OR DIE" everyday through 01/25

Nota

01//16 11:10 AM ET... CONTEXT MATTERS, EVEN THOUGH BEARISH AF RIGHT NOW...
a) replay this, bc we are not doing "too bad" for the curve:

b) but bulls need to push this sideways and they are "favored to" b of the high daily vol on this curve

Nota

c) like this:

d) that's the same as saying bulls will win this stretch
e) that's just saying that sideways vol is favored vs both bulls and bears
f) in this situation, good for bulls right now bc we need it

Nota

g) hold on, typo on d) that's NOT THE SAME as saying bulls will win this stretch...
h) sorry, I know have too many typos
i) so then:

Nota

11:27 AM ET... SO THIS POST HAS ENDED, I AM WORKING ON DRAFT 2 FOR DAILY BINARY
a) this is what I see from my end
b) the intermediate setup is BEARISH AF, so much that it is saying this move cannot happen
d) but if the last 100 years also matter
e) the this should be the outcome despite what intermediate trends say
f) that's what I meant when I said I solved for the "intermediate mirror image problem"
g) so I'll add the link to DRAFT 2 here later
h) I will say that daily binary for this stretch is one of the ugliest (difficult) set of regressions I've have had to do

Nota

3:45 PM AND THIS POST HAS ENDED, HERE IS DRAFT 2:

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