If we look at gold's previous half year rally (1045 --->1375) as one cycle last Friday we printed the 50% pullback of that rally. We just tagged the 50% Fibonacci retracement on Friday. We might be ready and start the rally from here. Or we might break below 1200$ and reverse quickly from there. The question is if price is ready to rally from here or they want the stops below 1200$. There are a lot of stops. If we break below 1200$ price will drop immediately 10-15$ from there. If the banks want to run the stops they have to do it tonight or tomorrow night. Thursday Thanksgiving in the US, Friday is a shorter trading day. Banksters will not leave this market for the long weekend without their gold longs. They could easily get left behind without positions. I've started to reopen my long positions last Friday. If we break below 1200$ we have 2 strong support zone where the decline can stop: 1. Last years intermediate cycle high at 1189.65 2. And the Fibonacci 61,8% at 1171$
So I think if we break below 1200 $ the zone where I would like to add to my positions is between 1189 and 1171$. (Green rectangle) As we are printing divergencies in MACD , RSI in every time frame I just don't want to risk that price bounces and I don't have position so I started to go long again.
If this is a bull market - I think it is - then this bounce should be a V-shaped reversal with a powerful short squeeze. It will just be the opposite what we had during the bear market when price dropped back to the ICL from the intermediate cycle highs.
LONG ENTRY
Komen
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Divergencies on the 4h chart
Komen
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Swing low in gold . With RSI leaving overbought and MACD turning up to cross over.
Komen
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We might have bottomed today in gold. We broke down the 1200 level , but it's interesting that the breakdown was not so strong. Price is recovering . We might have a failed breakdown today running everyone's stop .
Komen
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I have a feeling that noone left to sell gold....
Komen
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Today I closed all of my hedges at 1665-66$. The Fibonacci 61.8 retracement is holding the price . It's one of the longest daily cycle I have ever seen ... It's enough close for me.
Komen
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We are going to have a powerful short squeeze in gold tonight. I'm quite convinced we bottomed today.
Komen
chinoo
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Hi Arpi,
As u must be noticing, the USD has broken the top of 2015 and it will continue to break into newer tops, is my belief.
No financial instrument goes in a Linear fashion up or down. Everything has local tops & bottoms.
What is impressive at present is that the PM`s and Miners are not reacting to the dollar strength as they should have done by falling, which means they are exhibiting a lot of positive strength and this might be a case where the PM`s can rally from present level ... say gold can go anywhere from the current level to anywhere around 1230 to 1250 but only to fall there after ...
My view is, if the rally in Gold is building up then I am a bit skeptical but will surely look to participate in full to Short the same around the levels mentioned above.
I think, I am conveying my views quite clearly with no ambiguities what so ever !
I certainly have full respect for your views presented here ... let time be the judge or rather ... guide !
Bob.B.Perkins
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Since gold topped out, it's been a downer for gold miner owners, which I have plenty of. On the way down, I've held my positions and made better entry points as I expect gold to recover to heights we have never seen before.
carpethomeca
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Thanks MR Rick
totally agree with "I'm quite convinced we bottomed today."
if you can make your analysis more simplified, you will be next Buffet, and love to see it...
mrtommifunn
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My outlook:
VirtualFax
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"No one left to sell", even when there is no one left to sell here is always a possibility of a bank to dumping another 25,000 of paper gold to suppress the price if it's in major powers political of economical interests.
I suspect we are a little oversold and will recover somewhat in the near term but the selling is not over yet. In this case we'll come back to these levels and then some. We may be seeing $1,140 to 1,120 before we start running again.
VirtualFax
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I, obviously, meant "25,000 contracts of paper gold"
Nightstar
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@VirtualFax Agree.. this is no longer about supply and demand or whatever fundamentals all of you goombas are following, Lol! This is straight up manipulation __ period. It's political. And they can keep Gold suppressed and/or range bound for as long as they want. My stance on the Gold Bull is unfortunately starting to change.. I would be very pleasantly surprised if Gold was allowed to reach $1500 by next Spring :/ The times are changin' kiddos! Be ready to adapt.. or die.
mmmp12
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@Nightstar, It will do that, when you are losing the faith...
Nightstar
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@JA.piotr.bor It's not about faith or lack thereof.. it's about recognizing manipulation to satiate a Political agenda :)
hasansahoglu
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@Nightstar, that's not manipulation btw, its all in the game. gold had never been as easy as buyer/seller balance. This is the most difficult commodity to trade on. Oil, wheat, sugar, iron, copper you can say there is a supply/demand. But with gold, you have absolutely no clue what will happen next.
As u must be noticing, the USD has broken the top of 2015 and it will continue to break into newer tops, is my belief.
No financial instrument goes in a Linear fashion up or down. Everything has local tops & bottoms.
What is impressive at present is that the PM`s and Miners are not reacting to the dollar strength as they should have done by falling, which means they are exhibiting a lot of positive strength and this might be a case where the PM`s can rally from present level ... say gold can go anywhere from the current level to anywhere around 1230 to 1250 but only to fall there after ...
My view is, if the rally in Gold is building up then I am a bit skeptical but will surely look to participate in full to Short the same around the levels mentioned above.
I think, I am conveying my views quite clearly with no ambiguities what so ever !
I certainly have full respect for your views presented here ... let time be the judge or rather ... guide !