Basically I see this thing just mooning. Yes there are a lot of coins in circulation - but currently less than 1/2 of that of Ripple (XRP). If Ripple had the ability to reach above $3, this should have the ability to hit $6. I see a more stable range this year around $3-$4.
Side note - If China is looking to do so, that would actually not be a bad thing considering the majority of the mining operations would no longer be in a country controlled so heavily by government. Quebec is attracting miners now due to low energy costs so mining operations should continue soon.
How does this affects XLM? The way I look at it, big movements are done by whales. When whales pull out money, prices drop, shorts happen, dumping happens out of fear, etc. The key thing here is to really understand the technology behind Stellar 1.23% . It's super-fast, has low transaction costs, and I honestly believe it will be the future of sending money around the world. Soon Fairx. io -2.47% will be released which uses Stellar 1.23% "heavily". Read a little about it here - https://steemit.com/news/@ascension/fairx-and-stellar-xlm-why-is-this-huge-news