ElliotCM
Panjang

XRP / Ripple - $2.5 support level (HOLD)

BITSTAMP:XRPUSD   Ripple / Dollar
06-01-2018 Technical Analysis (Support levels & price targets)

XRP/USD            

PAST WEEK

Ripple has had an amazing past week, having a bullish run from $1.879 & peaking at $3.30! (75% increase in a mere 5 days). However having retraced about 30% from the peak of $3.30. It is still seemingly managing to hold steady at $2.50 (just below the 0.5 fib retracement level) which is still a 25% increase from the high of $1.879.

SUPPORT LEVELS

We are currently slightly below the 3rd support level from the high achieved on 4th of Jan 2018, priced at about $2.54 (0.5 fib retracement level).

Other support levels to watch out for as we continue the move upward in a few days will be $2.77 (0.618 fib retracement) & about $2.99 (0.786 fib retracement). Next support level if price were to break and fall would be, $2.21 (0.236 fib retracement). These support levels could be initial targets for price to stagger around before retesting the high of $3.30 and eventually popping the cap (bring the champagne please :P).

PRICE TARGETS

There are 4 possible price targets to hit after popping the previous high of $3.30. These are $3.42, $3.74, $4.02 & $4.24 (marked as the green horizontal lines). There is one more extension price target on my chart but I will not include it as it seems unlikely to be hit within the next rally.

RSI

RSI rating is 81 at the moment that I am typing this out. Still in the overbought channel, however we will have a few days of stagnant prices and it might even fall to the 4th & 5th support level ($2.41 & $2.21 respectively), giving us plenty of room to breathe whilst the RSI rating falls back into the "acceptable" range of below 75.

WEDGE

Looks to be that the wedge that i charted since the price of about $0.2 is finally gonna be broken in the next few days, which could cause a fall in price to the $2.41 support level , or maybe even the $2.21 level, if bears decide to push it down further. Not to fret though, this is a normal market correction after about 3 weeks of bullish movement, price will regain momentum soon, I will include dates of suspected volatility in the next section.

TIME FRAMES

The last piece of TA I did and uploaded on several forums (Reddit / XRPChat) were pretty accurate for both rallies around the time of 28th of December & 4th of Jan. The next time zones according to my analysis (marked by the orange areas) would be today, 6th             of Jan. The time I suspect the next big rally will be is, 14th Jan 2018, this is because the 3 week long wedge is about to be broken and it should be at least a few days, to a week long for price to re-consolidate before moving upward again.

These time frames should not be taken to be exact, therefore, give or take a couple of days before and after for price action to pick up (hence the orange "zones").

Conclusion / TLDR

Price should stay down for the next few days to a week long, expect price to start gaining momentum heading toward the 14th of Jan.

Don't be surprised if price falls to $2.21 - that is the lowest retracement level.

Expect prices to experience resistance whilst moving up back to $3.30. Once past $3.30 it should move up to a maximum of $4.24 or slightly higher.

Happy trading! Kept gains are less pains :)

- El.NOIV




What is the level 2 showing atm?
Balas
i love the structure of the way you are writing down your TA! thumbs up!!
Balas
thanks, I totally agree with your TA
Balas
gaiseric jerrebarre
@jerrebarre,

The rally started at 0.20 about a month ago not at 1.87 . All the dips were btc movement related other than the coinbase sellout which was coupled to a btc surge . A correction should be independent fro external a factors as all coins were affected from btc moves .
Balas
ElliotCM gaiseric
@gaiseric, i meant the last rally, which was the rally from $1.87 to $3.30. Which I did mention started a week ago.
+1 Balas
gaiseric ElliotCM
@ElliotCM,

I understand but what would be your analysis if we take the biggest pic from .20 ? .
Balas
ElliotCM gaiseric
@gaiseric, My analysis would be the same in the short-term, being that Ripple as a crypto currency fundamentally is the one of the best. Literally 215 times better than Bitcoin if we were to quantify and compared speed and transaction costs. To me, Ripple is way undervalued, as it is still sitting below the market cap of Bitcoin. And seeing that at this time, it has only fallen less than 20% from its all time high - even though the news that the biggest exchange (Coinbase) refused to release Ripple on its markets, which hardly made a dent in its price performance. It is unlikely for the coin to fall further. My guess is that the only real big swing downward for Ripple will happen after it hits or comes close to the $5 range. Maybe then it'll fully break support and fall further. My TA as of writing this has been proven to be somewhat correct as it did not break the 4th and 5th support level, but instead has continued with its recovery upward. Only in a weeks time or so will we see if my TA is correct and whether it'll continue with momentum upward toward the $4 mark :)
+1 Balas
gaiseric ElliotCM
@ElliotCM,

Fundamentals for xrp are there , good team , use case ...etc , i agree as a long term . But was wondering TA wise how it will correct if we take the bigger pic whoch is from .20 to 3.3 . Last time when it went from 0.005 to .43 it went down after a couple weeks to .11 than recovered around .20 s for 6 months . I know the market is different now .
Balas
ElliotCM gaiseric
@gaiseric, Ah I see where you're coming from now, back when it was trading that range I would have classified it as a micro-coin. It was mostly trading a channel through pump and dump mechanics. That was probably due to the fact that the wider market had not heard about Ripple yet. As for right now it has international attention and is on the cusp of being a household name, just like how Bitcoin is. I highly doubt the pump and dump mechanics would still apply, especially since it had taken the 2nd rank in market capitalisation just last week. I would say it is in permanent growth phase and it is unlikely to see Ripple drop below $2 ever again. If you're looking for a lower price point for entry, you should just enter now on this pullback. It ain't gonna go lower than what it is now. Ever. Well that is just my humble opinion :P
Balas
Fine work, thanks!
Balas
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