Hi all, This is an updated analysis from my piece nearly about a month ago (tradingview.com/chart/XRPUSD/WcxcPzHX-Short-term-Medium-Term-and-Longer-Term-Outlook-on-Ripple/). In the article I have mentioned that having patience will pay off (everything moved 2 times slower than I had anticipated). Our patience may now be paying off as, from a technical analysis perspective, price has just broken from the bullish pennant accompanied by over twice the moving average in volume. Furthermore, the break-out has occurred over 80% of the width of the pennant (start to apex = 109/136). I find that break-outs above this length are very powerful.
On to a more fundamental analysis, there has been very strong rumours of the potential interesting partnerships Ripple may have with chinese companies (Alibaba was the subject of one of the rumours found here: xrpchat.com/topic/8353-debunked-alibaba-running-validator-node/?tab=comments however it was debunked that they were running a validator node). The idea still stands that Ripple is very interested in expanding into China (which is confirmed: coindesk.com/ripple-confirms-china-expansion-plans-shoots-alibaba-rumor/). Add this to the fact, that the break-out coincides with Ripple's teaser post on twitter that the next 3 days will be heavy loaded with announcements (twitter.com/Ripple/status/899725196122136576), supports the break-out. There is a very high possibility that specific expansion plans into China may be announced.
On the subject of China, the amount of cross-border payments in the country has seen remarkable increase, in 2015, the " B2B ecommerce sector ... attracted over 5 billion yuan in 2015; a year-on-year increase of about 699%." (thepaypers.com/expert-opinion/cross-border-payments-in-china-looking-ahead/765832). If Ripple can obtain some market share into such a rapidly growing market, it would no doubt be beneficial to Ripple as a company and their token XRP which further reduces costs in payments.
Things to look out for over the next 3 days (Ordered to what I think is most to least important): . Expansion plans into China . Any expansions into other regions of the world (Miguel Vias has stated that we: "will see some very interesting developments with respect to our partnership in payments, with respect to XRP in particular" this quarter). . Escrow - Lockup date . SBI live tests date . More bank partnerships . Extension of Ripple's use into not just between banks but between businesses . Ripple beginning to take some market share (through partnerships with banks) in the forex market. The forex market turned over "$5.1 trillion per day in April 2016 (bis.org/publ/rpfx16.htm). If Ripple can take some of this market share, it would be an undeniable win for the company. This may be a bit further on or a stretch, but Ripple has been working amazingly fast given they are negotiating with institutions.
Overall, the break-out we have seen is fuelled by technical, fundamental and news related aspects. This reassures me that it may not be a bad idea to buy into XRP at this moment. I reiterate my conservative $0.52 target and look forward to what Ripple has to offer over the next 3 days of "mind-blowing #content and #speakers"!
Thanks for reading, feel free to leave any comments if you would like to add something or see something you disagree with. Feedback is always welcome!
Komen
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Ripple has announced "Swell" their own conference with keynote speakers Dr. Ben Bernanke and Sir Time Berners-Lee. Both are experienced in finance or revolutionary technology. While this is positive for Ripple in the long term, it falls flat relative to how much marketing it was given for the short-term. For traders looking at the short-term, it may be a good idea to move your capital to other opportunities and return towards the end of September/October again. The price target still holds, albeit now expected on a later date. For the short-term i expect to see price return to the support level of 0.202.
Koreans were driving the price jump with most of the volume; XRP was leading trade volume on their sites 15X over other currencies volumes. Now XRP trading volume is down at about the same as the other currencies on their site. What do you think will happen?
TheTraderJ
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@CyborgDroid, XRP is very popular in South Korea and it is true that most of the funding today and in the past has been from them. I also believe XRP at the moment is of very high interest to South Koreans based on many rumours of Ripple's partnerships in korea (This is one of the debates that Kakao bank will be the subject of the announcements upcoming: xrpchat.com/topic/8825-kakao-bank-guys/). It would make sense for south koreans to invest in XRP mainly due to home bias (maybe they have more extensive local knowledge and better information about what is happening with their banks?). The decreased volume on their exchanges presently logically follows as it is not peak trading time in korea (almost 10pm). Also, this can be considered a last 'gasp' or "calm before the storm" before Ripple's next tweet (twitter.com/Ripple/status/900026816429121536: it has been 21 hours since their last tweet, the next one is coming very soon). I am holding as I believe that Ripple is a fundamentally strong company and the rate at which they have progressed given that they are dealing with institutions bounded by regulations and stakeholder interests has been nothing short of amazing. I am still seeing a price target of $0.52. Thanks for the information update!
junaidurrehman1990
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Thanks for sharing analysis bro, its really to read that and we agree with the facts you linked with your analysis.
TheTraderJ
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@junaidurrehman1990, Thank you for the feedback! It really helps me determine if I'm on the right track not just with predicting the price, but how the analysis is written.
unitednoobies
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Hello TraderJ, what will be a good entry point right now. price is around 0.27.
TheTraderJ
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@unitednoobies, Hi, personally I've been holding a 3/4 position since 19 cents. Since price has been hovering around 0.27 and 0.28 for the past 2-3 hours it can be safe to say price has been consolidating. This makes sense since it is close to the end of the day for the asian and australian markets. I have added a 1/4 position at this price point with belief it will hit 0.52. Furthermore i am also expecting one last tweet from Ripple "The 1" which will complete their marketing of "3..2..1". No doubt this will affect positively on price given how much more the 2nd tweet affected price than the first. I am not expecting much movement however for the next 3-5 hours. Not until American and euro markets open. Hope this was helpful, thanks!
tom79
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0.25 right now on Bitstamp.
What kind of sorcery is this!!?
TheTraderJ
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@tom79, A good kind! Let's see how asia reacts to this price. Will they support it or take their profits. I am a bit more biased to the latter as no real news has been released but the volume of trading which keeps increasing sustaining momentum says otherwise.
frankw
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@TheTraderJ, Yeah I think the latter too, it has hit resistance the last hour or two as well. Took my profits at 0.25