French spot prices jump as cold strains supply

French spot power prices surged as increased demand from an intensifying cold spell risked putting supply under strain, although the grid operator ruled out power cuts for Monday as some of the country's depleted nuclear capacity returns to service.

French baseload power for Monday delivery (TRFRBD3) leapt to 885 euros per megawatt hour (MWh) in early trade, nearly double the closing price of 455 euros for Friday delivery.

The contract later eased back slightly to trade at 815 euros, still 79% above Friday's level.

Power demand in France is projected to rise to 74.8 gigawatts (GW) on Monday from an expected 68.5 GW on Friday, as the average temperature is projected to fall to 0.7 degrees Celsius (33.26°F) from 3.5 degrees forecast on Friday, Refinitiv Eikon data showed.

The country will not face power shortages on Monday based on current data, with an increased number of 41 of EDF's (EDF.PA) nuclear reactors expected to be online, grid operator RTE told Reuters.

Data from grid operator RTE showed EDF was ramping up generation at the Bugey 3, Cattenom 4, Cruas 2 and Dampierre 3 reactors following outages.

Including those reactors, online availability at EDF's (EDF.PA) nuclear fleet was 41,770 MW, or about 68% capacity, up from 63% a day earlier, based on a Reuters estimate.

Refinitiv analysts said demand may have to be curtailed by load-shedding measures, although others saw little risk at least for the start of next week.

France may face a supply gap of 2-8 GW throughout Monday which could require voluntary or even imposed cuts on a rolling basis, Nathalie Gerl analyst at Refinitiv said.

Import levels could be a crucial factor. French imports reached around 12 GW during morning peak hours on Friday compared with 14 GW on Thursday, RTE data showed.

In Germany, baseload power for Monday (TRDEBD3) was at 433 euros per MWh, up 4.6% compared with Friday delivery.

Consumption in Germany is expected to ease slightly on Monday to 61.6 GW compared with 62.2 GW projected for Friday, Refinitiv Eikon data showed.

Wind supply is expected to recover from Friday but would remain below normal at 7.7 GW, according to the data.

The German year-ahead baseload power contract (TRDEBYZ3) was down 2.7% at 372.50 euros/MWh, pressured by a drop in prices for European CO2 allowances (CFI2Zc1).