This script finds the percentage difference between Kraken, and multiple other exchanges, for the price of XMRUSD, and then runs a variable length moving average of those differences. Optionally, you can multiply by the reported volume of the exchange in question. Skip to "USAGE" at the bottom for a quick view of the settings. But I recommend reading DETAILED DESCRIPTION as well.
The purpose of this script is to get a look into the relative funds flows of XMR between Kraken and the other exchanges. So long as an exchange withdraws are open: 1) Negative divergences indicate XMR outflows from the exchange under consideration, 2) Postive divergences indicate XMR inflows from Kraken to the exchange.
This appears to be moderately correlated with price movements in Monero (but not always). There is also the theory that positive accumulation is a leading indication of a growing probability of postive price action in the general crypto market, and negative accumulation is a leading indicator of an upcoming peak. In other words, exchanges like to accumulate Monero quietly during calm downtimes, and they like to manage its price from gaining too much attention (pump) during broad market positivity.
It's well known among XMR traders that most exchanges are operating on a heavy fractional reserve basis as regards Monero. The past 2 years have seen regular and repeated withdraw freezes, sometimes for weeks/months at a time. Occasionally, liquidity stress tests have been performed, with predictable results - none of these exchanges are able to continue supporting withdraws.
Kraken is the only exchange of meaningful volume that has never frozen withdraws for more than an hour or so. Thus, we theorize that Kraken is operating with all, or most of the XMR they claim to have.
Furthermore, we have seen in the past, large price negative price divergences of these fractional reserve exchanges relative to Kraken. As the social outcry grew stronger for this malfeasance, these exchanges have gone to greater lengths to hide their price divergences.
On minute-by-minute ; hour-by-hour basis, typically, a look with the naked eye would show oscillation around the zero point. But when you average it out, especially on lower timeframes (like the 1 and 5 min candles), you can very clearly see that when withdraws are shut down, these exchanges simultaneously diverge their prices downwards as well.
The ideal view of price divergence would compare second-by-second prices, and then run something like a rolling 4-hr or 1-day SMA to average out the overall divergences. However, due to limitations of TradingView, this is impractical/impossible for actual usage/viewing. As a result, a balance must be struck, when selecting the combination of the candle period, and the SMA lookback length.
I find that 5min candles, with a 48-period lookback (that equates to a rolling 4-hour SMA), offers the best view of recent and historical price divergence activity. This of course means that we're only sampling price divergences once every 5 minutes, but it still provides a decent look at what's happening. If this script gets popular, I wouldn't be surprised if these exchanges start timing their candle closes to mask their misdeeds, but that's of course speculative on my part.
The other important factor here, *IS TO MULTIPLY BY VOLUME*. Some of these no-volume exchanges have large price divergences. But if they're not doing any real volume, then it doesn't really have any real market impact. Thus, I recommend keeping the "Make volume adjustment" option on.
If that ends up happening, we'll have to infer that by comparing the difference in close prices, vs the difference in the highest or lowest intra-candle prices (wicks). Typically a divergence should have all 3 showing similar results.
Notes regarding "Sum_of_All": This only makes sense when multiplying by volume. So only check this if you also made the volume adjustment. Generally I believe that *Binance* sets the tone. However, we have seen numerous occasions where Binance diverges down, and the others diverge up. I believe this is a social influence tactic, since most people look at Binance price. Meanwhile, they're trying to accumulate some small amount on the other exchanges to minimize their overall loss. This of course assumes collusion by these exchanges, which is a high likely hood, seeing as how in May 2021, they all diverged together simultaneously (among other evidence).
I recommend using your browser zoom, to see data beyond 1 month in the past.
Lookback - The number of candles over which to conduct a moving average. On 5-min candles for example, here's how the math works out:
12 - Equates to a 1 hr MA
24 - 2 hrs
48 - 4 hrs (default)
288 - 1 day
2880 - 10 days
Make Volume Adjustment - Recommend that you usually keep this on.
Line Widths - Set to preference
Show_Close_Price? - You can compute the difference at candle close. Or you can check the other boxes to compare the highest/lowest prices for intra candle prices (wicks).
Show Sum_of_All? - You can sum all of the differences, which only makes sense if you're making the volume adjustement. Default is off. Below, you can also choose which exchanges to include in the sum.
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