An experimental indicator that uses historical prices and readings of technical indicators to give the probability that stock and crypto prices will be in a certain range on the next close. This indicator may be helpful for options traders or for traders who want to see the probability of a move.
It classifies returns into five categories: Extreme Rise - Over 2 standard deviations above normal returns Rise - Between 0.5 standard deviations and 2 standard deviations above normal returns Flat - Falling in the range of +/- 0.5 standard deviations of normal returns Fall - Between 0.5 standard deviations and 2 standard deviations below normal returns Extreme Fall - Over 2 standard deviations below normal returns
It is an adaptive probability model, which trains on the previous 1000 data points, and is calculated by creating probability vectors for the current reading of the PPO, MA, volume histogram, and previous return, and combining them into one probability vector.