banknifty analysis,aviod false breakout and how to follow trend

29 Jul 2023

i usually dont post on indices but this analysis will help you for both indices and stock analysis
but will be much useful for option buyers as stock buyers they wont lose if stock is side ways


guys usual learning rsi below 30 oversold above 70-80 over bought different people take it differently
and macd above center line buy below center line sell, or in macd 26ema crosses 9 ema sell , or 9 ema crosses 26 ema buy
moving averages when smaller moving average crosses larger moving average buy and when larger moving average crosses smaller moving average sell ,,
and some guys use super trend they buy when given buy signal and sell when given sell signal ,
so everyone know these basics then is it that simple ?
answer is no,it is not that simple
there would be false signals most of the time and all tecnical indicators most of them are derived from price ,,there are also volume based indicators and etc. that is a different thing ,
so finally as saying goes "bav bagav hay market may" price is the god of market
so all you need is to follow trend
by confluence of signals (confluence trading) where multiple signals will give you a confirm trade--this will only happen when there is a trend so in case if you think you have too many indicators just follow trend .

so one of the main essential thing is to get confirm trade and to avoid false signals lets get that with the above banknifty chart

so you can see arrow1 where moving averages are so close which is nothing but convergence which also indicates sideways market so wait for a direction or breakout ,so why i use both macd and moving averages is you can see macd uses 26 and 9 ema and provides center line ,and moving averages i use are 20,50 100, so at that point you can see price broke above moving averages and there was rally and you can see on macd also there was strong convergence where arrow 2 is pointed and is above center so finally it broke out on higher side and trend is uptrend
best way to take a trade is price completely above or below all the moving averages and in macd above center line or below center line ,,,so at arrow one you get a trade.

so after a shift move you can see rsi was at 86 at arrow 8 and there was a hanging man candle that day market gap up opened , so it was sideways it did not fell immediately as soon as rsi is in overbought range there is no need that market need to fall when rsi is above 80 as i said it is just derived from price but indicates to stay cautios thats all, so you can see the trend is still up as price is still above mas ,and there came a fall of 368 points in one 15min candle ,which filled the gap of that day ,but later you can see the red circle where price is side ways where 20 ma is converged in price but still above 50 ma and you can see on macd arrow 3 it gave sell signal but the trend was side ways, so it is a false signal but it was above center line which indicates still uptrend but with some consolidation

so next day price again gaped up filled gap , still above all ma and macd still above center line,
arrow5 indicates convergence and rsi also indicating +ve divergence so till the trend is up do not take any bearish positions as long as above mas follow trend and market rallied.

so at arrow seven you can see rsi is at 83 at 20 jul 14:15 candle the next 15 min candle there was a 108 point fall this also one of the false moment , you can see macd is still above center,and macd moving averages are +ve and price still above all mas, the next candle market fell another 80 points and recovered in the same 15 min candle,
""so another point is while taking trade let the candle closing be happening completely"",
later market went to 46369.5 and rsi was at 74.77 at that high candle ok now rsi is decreasing from 83 to 74 so beraish divergence but still above mas, and going forward 21 jul 10:00 canlde you can see macd 9 ema crossing 26 ema and rsi is decreasing so wait and watch no trade to take

later price was side ways and made some higher highs and higher lows but still not below mas at arrow 6 you can see finally macd is below center line but still 100 dma is respected but 20 and 50 are broken so not a trending market as price is not above all ma,

at arrow 4 20 ema and 50 ema converged and rsi already in bearish and macd below centerline and macd emas also -ve so no bullish trades only bearish, so going forward price broke 100 ema and rsi going down and macd also , but you can see as the candle 25jul 11:30 it closed below 100 ema but next two had doji and it reversed a bit this is a difficult place to predict , but still macd below center line and rsi beraish and ma -ve crossover

but a new point when you see there red consective maribozu candles it is 3 black crows , and three 3 green are three white soliders but in trending like this when you find three continous red candle mostly the next one will be green and vice versa in these type of situations so be careful ,

exact three black crows and 3 white soliders i will come up with a different post but in this set up they are false candels

and you can see 3 green and there was a fall and again came 3 red then again at arrow 9, 2dojis and again 3 green candle
at arrow 9 you see macd 9 ema is crossing 26 ema and rsi is showing positive to oversold signs,and ma are tavelling side ways, which is convergence ,so now market already sloped down
as ball falls from high into smaller steps market made hh and hl (higher highs and higher lows)
and stabilizing ,

so moving averages are converging and are so close , and there formed inverse head and shoulder with perfect head and shoulders as you can see two dojis in between and 3 red candels and 3 green green candels in head part

at arrow 11 macd crossed center momentum is picking up, rsi is showing +ve divergence at arrow 10, at arrow 11 price is moving above mas with confirmed inverse head and shoulder, so you get another trade

so finally expiry day came that too montly expiry and price hit the previous high , which is a resistance, so at the same peak there came 3 consecutive red candles so is this a real three black crows yes it is, you can see the fourth cadle is not green , and that is the candle that broke all 3 ema and closed below 100 ema, where arrow 12 is pointing 27 jul 11:15 candle ,also macd is above center but bearish crossover, rsi also bearish and price closed below all mas which is main thing followed by three black crows this was a real 3 black crows valid one , the fourth candle gave a strong validation so here comes another trade.

at arrow 13 there was again 3 red and you can see followed by two green this always a false reversal in strong treding down , if in trend this occurs the trend will again be the same even for 3 white candels vice versa, and arrow 15 showed rsi 30 but is false , when going down trend the people who follow rsi 30 buy concept might entered here causing 2 green candle that hits tsl and stoploss, but in 3 rd candle you see again big fall so do not go againts these type of trends , these are just pull backs in treding where you can add quantity if you have conviction in set up, ,, similar you also saw in uptrend there are some falls but finally price moved higher ,same here also when going down dont go in reverse,

so finally at arrow 14 the price took support on trendline that i drew on daily time frame , now macd is +ve but below center line, rsi is showing positive price above 20 ema but not above all emas so wait till you get confirm call let price move above all emas i think there will be again ma convergence wait for it or see if trendline breaks usually 1st week of month around 4-5 dates mutual funds buy so wait for all conditions to meet.

so final conclusion,
price above all mas very very important for trend followers, mas may be lagging indicators but are purest derivation of price

macd above or below center along with macd ma crossover

rsi divergences is lead indicator

any pattern or interesting candle sticks or with bigger time frame trendline

follow the trend for indice trader if option buying they make only if market is trending ,

so always wait for trend do not over trade . or if you want brekout method wait for averages to get close and see if other conditions are in your favor bingo!!!

hope everyone enjoyed and learned something , and when experience builds up you will be in much more advantagious situation

never depend on one indicator you can change the system with super trend also , but atlast everything is trend as price either need to go up or down or sideways .

disclaimer- this is not any investment call or idea , this just my view and it can go wrong ,this is only for educational purposes trade at your own risk :)