Overall Structure
BTC has been trading inside a multi-month ascending channel, but the recent breakdown has pushed price below the lower boundary — a significant technical event.
Price is now hovering around 82,000, sitting between two major levels.
Bearish Signals
1. Breakdown from Ascending Channel
• BTC has clearly broken below the rising channel that guided price throughout 2024–2025.
• This typically signals a shift from bullish structure to mid-term bearish momentum.
2. 50-Day SMA Turning Downward
• The 50 SMA is rolling over, confirming weakening trend strength.
3. Next Major Support
• $73,645 (purple line) is the first strong horizontal demand zone.
• If this breaks, BTC will likely target:
• $52,800 (major structural support)
• This also aligns with the lower dotted horizontal structure.
Bullish Possibilities
A bullish reversal becomes viable ONLY if:
1. BTC reclaims the channel
• Price must break back above $107,600 to return inside the ascending trend.
• This would invalidate the breakdown and could trigger a new leg up.
2. Strong Reaction at $73,645
• The purple zone is the main place bulls are likely to defend.
Bullish Scenario (Green Arrow)
If BTC holds above $73,645 and pushes upward:
Targets:
1. $107,600 — reclaiming the channel
2. $120,000 – $130,000 — upper channel resistance (if fully recovered)
Bearish Scenario (Red Arrow)
If BTC loses the $73,645 support:
Targets:
1. $52,800 — major structural support
2. If deeper panic emerges, even $40,000–45,000 becomes possible (not shown but structurally valid)
Summary
• Trend: Turning bearish after channel breakdown
• Critical Support: $73,645
• Bullish Trigger: Break above $107,600
• Bearish Trigger: Break below $73,645 → $52,800
BTC has been trading inside a multi-month ascending channel, but the recent breakdown has pushed price below the lower boundary — a significant technical event.
Price is now hovering around 82,000, sitting between two major levels.
Bearish Signals
1. Breakdown from Ascending Channel
• BTC has clearly broken below the rising channel that guided price throughout 2024–2025.
• This typically signals a shift from bullish structure to mid-term bearish momentum.
2. 50-Day SMA Turning Downward
• The 50 SMA is rolling over, confirming weakening trend strength.
3. Next Major Support
• $73,645 (purple line) is the first strong horizontal demand zone.
• If this breaks, BTC will likely target:
• $52,800 (major structural support)
• This also aligns with the lower dotted horizontal structure.
Bullish Possibilities
A bullish reversal becomes viable ONLY if:
1. BTC reclaims the channel
• Price must break back above $107,600 to return inside the ascending trend.
• This would invalidate the breakdown and could trigger a new leg up.
2. Strong Reaction at $73,645
• The purple zone is the main place bulls are likely to defend.
Bullish Scenario (Green Arrow)
If BTC holds above $73,645 and pushes upward:
Targets:
1. $107,600 — reclaiming the channel
2. $120,000 – $130,000 — upper channel resistance (if fully recovered)
Bearish Scenario (Red Arrow)
If BTC loses the $73,645 support:
Targets:
1. $52,800 — major structural support
2. If deeper panic emerges, even $40,000–45,000 becomes possible (not shown but structurally valid)
Summary
• Trend: Turning bearish after channel breakdown
• Critical Support: $73,645
• Bullish Trigger: Break above $107,600
• Bearish Trigger: Break below $73,645 → $52,800
Penafian
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Penafian
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.