Bitcoin when & where to exit!
Everyone is wondering if they are too late to buy bitcoin.
In my opinion no. You're never too late. But there are good and not so good times to buy.
The easiest way to navigate the crypto market is by doing the opposite of the fear and greed index. Right now we're in the greed phase. Wait until there's blood in the market.
When?
Based on last cycle. We saw the bear low 17 Months before the halving.
This cycle we formed the potential low also 17 Months before the upcoming halving.
Based on these estimations we can anticipate bitcoin to top around march to October 25!
Where?
I'm a fan of Fibonacci Extensions. Measured from the previous ATH to the Bear Low.
Last time around we saw the top between 2-3 standard deviations of the bear market retracement. If we go back to past cycles we can see a decrease of deviations.
I'm looking to scale out between 1-2 standard deviations. 2-3 standard deviations is the best case / optimistic scenario. If we would have expected the same standard deviations to be hit in the 2020/2021 Bull Market, that we hit during the 2017/2018 Bull Market (Hit 4-6 Deviations)
we would still be waiting.
Please no bitcoin bear comments. Unless I'm wrong and we go to 0. Then I deserve the I told you so. BTC becomes more institutionalised by the second.
In my opinion no. You're never too late. But there are good and not so good times to buy.
The easiest way to navigate the crypto market is by doing the opposite of the fear and greed index. Right now we're in the greed phase. Wait until there's blood in the market.
When?
Based on last cycle. We saw the bear low 17 Months before the halving.
This cycle we formed the potential low also 17 Months before the upcoming halving.
Based on these estimations we can anticipate bitcoin to top around march to October 25!
Where?
I'm a fan of Fibonacci Extensions. Measured from the previous ATH to the Bear Low.
Last time around we saw the top between 2-3 standard deviations of the bear market retracement. If we go back to past cycles we can see a decrease of deviations.
I'm looking to scale out between 1-2 standard deviations. 2-3 standard deviations is the best case / optimistic scenario. If we would have expected the same standard deviations to be hit in the 2020/2021 Bull Market, that we hit during the 2017/2018 Bull Market (Hit 4-6 Deviations)
we would still be waiting.
Please no bitcoin bear comments. Unless I'm wrong and we go to 0. Then I deserve the I told you so. BTC becomes more institutionalised by the second.
Penafian
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