Bitcoin

Bitcoin entering Very Expensive area

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I use four key Moving Averages — the 25W, 50W, 100W, and 200W — to assess whether Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued.

  • Bull Market Strategy:
    When Bitcoin touches the 50-week Moving Average (50W MA) during a bull market, it often represents its fair value — typically an excellent buying opportunity.

  • Expensive Zone:
    When Bitcoin trades above all four moving averages (25W, 50W, 100W, 200W), it enters the expensive zone. In this phase, we can usually expect a short-term continuation upward, followed by a pullback to retest or cross below some of the averages.

  • Bear Market Strategy:
    During bearish periods, patience is key. The best long-term entry opportunities often occur when Bitcoin drops below the 200-week Moving Average (200W MA) — historically marking undervalued territory.
    Based on current cycles, this scenario may unfold again around 2026.

Penafian

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