XBTFX

Bitcoin: too early for a $38K break?

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
Previous week was marked with striking news that Binance exchanger settled with $4.3 billion in penalties, after its CEO Changpeng Zhao was found guilty of failing to maintain an effective anti-money laundering program in his company. Although BNB reacted in a negative way, still the crypto market remained in a positive mood. This comes as a result of a market perception that through current developments, a systemic risk in the crypto industry is avoided and that this resolution will support further shift of the crypto industry toward the regulated and safer one. The market is also perceiving that a regulated market will support SEC`s decision to approve the first exchange traded fund linked to BTC and ETH.

During the week, the price of BTC was briefly testing the $35K support line, without strength to break it. Soon the price reverted back toward the $38K resistance line. The highest price level reached during the week was $38.316 but only on one occasion. BTC is ending the week around $37.7K. The RSI started its modest move below the overbought market side, and finished the week around the level of 61. The indicator is still not suggesting that the market is ready for a move toward the oversold side. Moving average of 50 days continues to diverge from its MA200 counterpart, without any indication that the potential cross might be ahead.

Currently there is an equal amount of both buying and selling orders on the BTC market. Investors are still optimistic regarding future price of BTC, which was highly reflected in prices of longer term BTC futures, which passed $40K for the end of next year. This positive sentiment was supporting the price of BTC to hold around $38K for the last almost three weeks. Charts are pointing toward the potential for a short term reversal for the last two weeks. Considering the high hype that is holding the market related to potential first ETF approval, buying orders might support the price of BTC for one more week. However, in case that BTC starts a move toward the downside, it should not expect the price to move below $35K in the week ahead.

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