BITCOIN – EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED – SWING FAIL PATTERN OF DEATH ?

11 Sep

“Euphoria is the silence before the storm.”

📰 Context

Bitcoin has been grinding slowly upwards since the start of September, reaching the 114,000 zone. On the surface, momentum looks positive — but the underlying data tells a different story.

Retail sentiment is overwhelmingly bullish, with many anticipating rate cuts at the September 16–17 Fed meeting.
However, BTC is currently trading inside a large imbalance zone, right as the market waits for today’s Core CPI release.

Ask most traders and they’ll say, “it goes up.” But when the majority leans one way, risk often lies in the opposite direction.

📉 Facts & Liquidity Landscape

• Weekend lows remain unswept.
  
• Weekend structures are weak (thin liquidity, low volume). Markets love to test and run them for stop fuel.
  
• Early July lows still untouched.
  
• These are classic “bad lows” → no excess, too much time spent there. Weak foundation = high probability of a sweep.
  
• Late August / early September lows = same story.
  
• Flat shelves and equal wicks act as magnets.
  
• Markets don’t leave “poop” behind — they sweep it away before moving higher.
  

CPI risk.

• The market is expecting good news. If CPI disappoints, the shock factor could trigger panic → perfect catalyst for a liquidity grab.
  

📊 CVD, OI & Orderflow Data

• Spot CVD (all exchanges): trending down → no aggressive spot buyers, demand missing.
  
• Futures CVD (Stablecoin-margined): building bearish divergences vs price on 1H–4H.
  
• Futures CVD (Coin-margined): same divergence → futures driving the move, not spot.
  
• Open Interest:
  
• Yesterday during NY/CME we saw a cluster of aggressive longs pile in (marked yellow candle).
  

If price declines from here, those positions become squeeze fuel.


🎯 My Take

• Expect a dump into the “Mega King of Cleanopia” zone → sweeping weekend lows + untouched July/Aug/Sept lows.
  
• That grab creates a Swing Fail Pattern (SFP):
  
• Retail shorts get trapped at the bottom.
  
• Market absorbs liquidity.
  
• Squeeze fuel builds for a reversal higher.
  

⚖️ Bias & Invalidation

• Bias: Short-term (until FOMC) bearish liquidity sweep → medium-term bullish if SFP forms.
  
• Upside invalidation: Sustained trade above 114,500.
  
• Downside target for sweep: Lows of July + Aug/Sept cluster → liquidity magnet.
  
• Higher PRZ at the 0.886 - which I marked.
  

✅ Summary:

• BTC looks euphoric on the surface, but the data shows weakness.
  
• No spot demand, perp-driven rally, unswept bad lows below.
  
• CPI could be the trigger: if bad, expect panic → liquidity grab → potential SFP reversal.
  

12 Sep

Dagangan aktif

Price hit the PRZ:

12 Sep

Nota

ibb.co/ymHgHHb7

On OkEx, we see a substantial spike in open interest for coin-margined BTC perpetual contracts, accompanied by a sharp rise in cumulative volume delta, indicating that a significant number of new long positions have been opened through aggressive market buying.

This development represents considerable "long squeeze fuel"; if price appreciation does not follow, there is a heightened risk of a rapid and pronounced decline as these newly established long positions could be forced to liquidate.

12 Sep

Nota

At the same time, a clear hidden bearish divergence is forming on the Aggregated OI Coin-Margined CVD, as buy-side aggression pushes CVD to new highs while price only manages to form a lower high, showing that buyers are being absorbed and fresh longs are trapped — a setup that often leads to downside continuation through long liquidations.

ibb.co/N2xSpVTb

12 Sep

Nota

We might have to close the RTH gap on BTC CME before moving further down, which will likely create a double local top around the 116500 levels.

12 Sep

Nota

CME RTH Gap filled, double top created at BTC.

12 Sep

Nota

The white line at 116,685 marks the CME RTH gap open. As spot and perps have now traded into the same zone, cross-venue arbitrage has largely equalized prices—gap checked, imbalance reduced. From here, direction depends on fresh flow (CVD/OI), not the gap magnet. I opened a second short here.

7 hari lalu

Nota

BTC – Monday Read: Bad High Swept, Perp-Led Push, Trap Fuel Loading

Why the idea still stands

Bad local high swept (~116,600) pre-London.
Classic liquidity run into the session open: the prior high had no excess and TPO single prints (thin participation) → unfinished auction. Price poked above, harvested stops, and rotated back inside = SFP behavior unless acceptance builds above.

Order flow split across venues (ExoCharts).
- Binance: cluster of top longs opening into the breakout.
- Bybit: shorts opening into the same push (fading strength).

This is textbook positioning asymmetry: if price rolls, Binance longs are trapped; if it squeezes, Bybit shorts fuel upside. Given spot weakness (below), odds lean toward longs getting tagged first.

- Spot–Futures CVD divergence (bearish).
- Spot CVD failed to confirm the latest push → no real spot demand.
- Futures CVD (coin + stablecoin) also didn’t make new highs on the last drive → buy aggression waning on perps. A perp-led rally without spot follow-through is fragile.

Coin-margined risk is elevated.
- Marked in the purple box, coin-margined OI shows top longs still open. Inverse margin means when price falls, collateral shrinks and losses grow in USD terms → earlier liquidations vs USDT-margined. That’s heavier downside fuel if we rotate lower.

What the concepts mean (quick facts)

- Bad high / TPO single prints: thin, one-time prints = poor structure. Markets often revisit to “complete” the auction. A sweep without acceptance above is reversal-prone.

- SFP (Swing Fail Pattern): take the prior high, fail to hold, close back inside → liquidity grab and trap.

- Spot–Futures CVD divergence: price up on futures aggression while spot sells/doesn’t confirm = regular bearish divergence; rally is perp-driven and more likely to mean-revert.

- Coin-margined longs: more explosive downside when trapped due to inverse margin math.

My read / Trade inference

Bias: My initial idea still holds - and even stronger.

Receipts (screens)

Aggregated CVD & OI: ibb.co/dwJN5gXC

Binance order flow – top longs: ibb.co/kVmTP8Xz

Bybit order flow – top shorts: ibb.co/dwJN5gXC

TL;DR: We swept a bad high into London with spot not confirming, perp CVD fading, and coin-margined longs still open. Unless we build acceptance above the sweep, odds favor a downside rotation powered by long liquidations.

5 hari lalu

Nota

Still active. Top Longs are piling in. - Which is good. Overall sentiment is very bullish, which makes me very bearish ;)

4 hari lalu

Nota

Still active.

Hit the golden pocket, SFP in play.

3 hari lalu

Nota

Still active. = > expecting a dump. SL above 118800.

3 hari lalu

Nota

Still active.

5 jam lalu

Nota

Still active. Expecting a retest of 115-116k-ish. Before expanding further down.