2025.05.24 Bitcoin Elliott Wave Analysis

24 Mei

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Let's analyze the current Bitcoin trend based on the Elliott Wave Theory.

First, the strong upward trend starting from 102K and ending at 112K can be identified as an impulse wave (Wave 1 to 5) in the Elliott Wave structure. The subsequent decline from 112K appears to be part of a C wave that began at the peak of the B wave. The rebound near 107K seems to be a so-called "Dead Cat Bounce," interpreted as a technical rebound due to a strong support/resistance zone in that area.

To make the wave count easier to understand, you can view a chart showing only the wave count at the link below:


The wave ratios used in this idea are as follows:

higher-degree Wave 1 analysis: Wave 1 to 3 × 0.618 = Wave 5

higher-degree Wave 3 analysis: Wave 1 × 0.618 = Wave 5

higher-degree Wave 5 analysis: Wave 1 × 1 = Wave 5

higher-degree Wave C analysis: Wave 1 × 2.618 = Wave 3

Based on this analysis, the trend still leans toward the upside, and the following take-profit levels are suggested:

First target: 109,980 USDT

Second target: 111,361 USDT

Thank you.

24 Mei

Nota

This long entry could have also been caught using the 1.13 Alt Bat pattern.
The RSI bullish divergence has been confirmed.
It was a relatively easy spot to take a long position.

25 Mei

Nota

It’s very common for wave B to slightly exceed the top of wave 5 before wave C unfolds.
If you count the waves, it matches the chart above.
Also, the Alt Bat pattern has been confirmed with the 1.13 level.
It remains a strong long position.


This shows the wave count so far.

I’ve consistently maintained a bullish outlook and have never changed my stance.
I believe the target levels mentioned in this post (e.g., the first take-profit at 109980) will be reached.

This looks like the final chance to buy.

26 Mei

Nota

first tp hit!

28 Mei

Dagangan aktif

The 1st target has already been reached, and we are currently waiting for the continuation of the upward trend.
This idea follows up on the idea posted on May 29.
Click the image below to view the original idea:

31 Mei

Dagangan ditutup: sasaran tercapai

Trade Review
The first target was reached without issue, but unfortunately, the second target was not achieved.
However, as planned in advance, 50% of the position was taken profit at the first target, and the remaining 50% was fully closed at the entry price, marking the end of this trade.
As a result, it was a trade that minimized risk and secured stable profits.

📊 Check the TradingView Chart


In this trade, a strong breakout near the 110,400 USDT high led to expectations of accelerated upward movement toward the second target.
However, the price failed to fully absorb the supply zone between 110,500 and 112,000 USDT, faced strong resistance, and eventually reversed into a downtrend.

Summary Feedback
Partial take-profit and breakeven management: Following the pre-defined strategy allowed for stable risk management and profit realization, which is highly positive.

Balance in technical analysis: This was a good reminder that not only advanced techniques like harmonic patterns and Elliott Waves are important, but also that basic support/resistance and supply zone analysis are equally essential.

Strategy refinement direction: Moving forward, I will continue to focus on key market price zones (supply zones, highs/lows) in parallel with technical analysis to build more refined trading strategies.