BTC mid-term analysis

14 Mac

BTC has staged an impressive rally, surging by approximately 80% since the validation of the ETF. There have been few notable obstacles along the way.

Currently, BTC prices are confronting a significant juncture, encountering monthly resistance. Historically, BTC has been rejected at this level twice before, once in May 2021 and again in November 2021. The question now arises: will history repeat itself?

There are two possible scenarios to consider:

1. Scenario A: BTC may undergo a period of consolidation in the coming weeks, potentially leading to a significant correction.
   
2. Scenario B: Alternatively, BTC could breach the monthly resistance and soar to levels as high as 90K-100K before experiencing a correction.
   

Should scenario A materialize, I anticipate a final pump in altcoin prices before they too face correction alongside BTC. However, if scenario B happens, BTC would likely sustain its bullish momentum, leading to an increase in BTC dominance (refer to the attached screenshot).

For now, I'll focus on these two scenarios before attempting to predict what lies beyond.

Which scenario do you prefer or anticipate?

15 Mac

Nota

Like two last time (in 2021), at this monthly resistance level, BTC price was very volatile with high fluctuation of 10-20%. BTC was already down 10% since yesterday:

17 Mac

Nota

Here is my short-term view: I'll wait BTC to drop to $62000 to open (short-term) LONGs:

17 Mac

Nota

We've reached a critical juncture. Please take a moment to share your thoughts in the comments below. Your insights will provide valuable context on the prevailing market sentiment.

19 Mac

Nota

Prices is dropping in my considered liquidity zone. Wait for reaction to decide:

19 Mac

Nota

I bought BTC at this price wit SL at 60000 and TP at 73K-75K

19 Mac

Nota

Here is my set-up:

20 Mac

Nota

+6% from entry

24 Mac

Nota

For the above short-term trade, I move SL to entry $63982 and let it ride.
This trade is valid for short-term only. For mid-term, I'll update my view in the above comment.

24 Mac

Nota

BTC prices are in a complex situation, in my opinion:
* For Long-term (horizon of months): Bullish
* For Mid-term (horizon of weeks): Bearish
* For Short-term (horizon of days/weeks): trend is unclear (size way)

Looking on mid-term price action, it's very likely that we'll see a Bearish Harami candle after weekly close. I'm lowering my swing Longs' size and close short-term trades. Possibly that BTC would rise up to resest the monthly resistance from here but for me the better/safer LONGs' entry are when BTC goes to 60K or 51K.

25 Mac

Nota

Update on short-term trade. BTC is +10% up. Altcoins pump heavily.
Now BTC is close to the monthly resistance area. Pay attention with late Longs.

29 Mac

Nota

Two days more before monthly close. Can BTC prices end above the montly trendline, around $72500?

31 Mac

Nota

Monthly candle closed below the resistance trendline. Next month, April, will be critical and I anticipate a high volatility in both directions (up & down)

31 Mac

Nota

BTC prices seems to revisit the monthly resistance areas. I move SL to entry for my short-term trade.
For this new week, be attention with late and highly-leveraged LONGs

2 Apr

Nota

New week has started with two red days. BTC and altcoins are suffering.
Here is the scenario that I will follow the next weeks with:
Current support: $60000
Current resistance: $73000-$75000
Next support: $50000-$52000

7 Apr

Nota

Weekly chart show that buy pressure is still strong at $65000-$67000. Prices did'nt drop to $60000 as expected.
I'll need to watch BTC for few days more to update the above distribution hypothesis.

10 Apr

Nota

BTC still stay strong before the halving. My view change: I see an ascending triangle being formed. My preference is a break-out of the current resistance before the end of month. Still, a good confirmation will be the April's close, in my opinion.

13 Apr

Nota

The triangle was broken, prices have fallen to the strong support 60000s and bounce. I've accumulated FTM and TIA in this dip.

13 Apr

Nota

The drop of crypto market is linked to war, likely.

15 Apr

Nota

Here is my view after big events of last week (CPI, political conflicts).
The main levels remain: monthly resistance, weekly support. For short-term, I keep an eye on the local triangle:

18 Apr

Nota

The triangle idea was invalid.
BTC touched the weekly support area and bounced.
On 4H TF, the descending wedge was broken. I expect that BTC would rise as high as $71000.

23 Apr

Nota

Update: In short-term, $71000 is still expected following the above analysis

23 Apr

Nota

Here below, my view on 1D TF:

28 Apr

Nota

Update my current view: If BTC goes to $59000-$60000, I'll consider to BUY

1 Mei

Nota

BTC dropped to the trendline (starting from October 2023).
My short-term trade was opened: Entry $57500 with SL $55000 and TP $73000.

3 Mei

Nota

BTC is +10% up since my entry (see setup in the above comment)

4 Mei

Nota

Local trendline broken in 4H TF, retest would be succeed then BTC will head $70000 (upper trendline of the bull flag)

14 Mei

Nota

BTC has been sideways for two month. In my opinion, we are at an important moment: prices are between EMA50D and EMA120D. It should hold the EMA120D if we want to see the recovery of bull soon. If losing this level (EMA 120D), prices would go lower $50000 and the consolitation will be prolonged.

11 Jun

Nota

BTC was rejected by the local High ($71000) and is resiting the trendline starting from October 2023. If this trendline hold, BTC will try again the monthly resistance (above $71000).
If the trendline is broken, it will revisit the current strong support around $60000.
I'll adapt Long/Short in function of BTC behavior at this trendline.