As illustrated in the chart, 
BTCUSDT has now transitioned cleanly from an uptrend (green candles) to a warning phase (yellow) — a signal that flashed just before Friday’s crash (excellent timing) then red candles.
The latest 4H chart confirms a clear downtrend, with price collapsing from the midline to the lower boundary of a machine-learning–derived trading channel. Selling pressure is mounting, and bears are firmly in control.
This transition is clearly visible in price, but the story doesn’t stop there.
Another ML-based tool, my composite sentiment indicator, turned negative back on Tuesday, October 7th (also great timming) and has since dropped deep into bearish territory. It reflects the emotional cycle turning from optimism to despair, perfectly aligned with the technical deterioration shown in the chart.
Statistically, my propietary trend strength index now reads 0.39 — well below the neutral 0.50 threshold. This means short-term selling pressure is dominating both medium and long-term momentum. The index combines multiple quantitative measures (Hurst Exponent, Sharpe Ratio, variance, and CAGR) to assess how “healthy” a trend really is. At present, it’s anything but healthy.
🧭 Conclusion
BTC’s current structure has progressed in perfect order: bullish → warning → bearish. All three pillars — technical, sentiment, and statistical — are aligned to the downside.
In short, this is not a buy-the-dip environment. Short-term rallies are better viewed as opportunities to enter short positions, not long ones.
A shift to a bullish bias would require all three signals to reverse:
1. Yellow then Green candles reappearing on the price chart (after a yellow phase).
2. A visible improvement in sentiment. (composite indicator returning to positive readings).
3. Statistical momentum index recovering to at least 0.50.
Until then, caution remains the strategy.
If you’d like to discuss building highly effective trading indicators, feel free to drop a comment below.
And if you’re curious about how my main crypto bot is approaching the market right now, check the first comment.
BTCUSDT has now transitioned cleanly from an uptrend (green candles) to a warning phase (yellow) — a signal that flashed just before Friday’s crash (excellent timing) then red candles. The latest 4H chart confirms a clear downtrend, with price collapsing from the midline to the lower boundary of a machine-learning–derived trading channel. Selling pressure is mounting, and bears are firmly in control.
This transition is clearly visible in price, but the story doesn’t stop there.
Another ML-based tool, my composite sentiment indicator, turned negative back on Tuesday, October 7th (also great timming) and has since dropped deep into bearish territory. It reflects the emotional cycle turning from optimism to despair, perfectly aligned with the technical deterioration shown in the chart.
Statistically, my propietary trend strength index now reads 0.39 — well below the neutral 0.50 threshold. This means short-term selling pressure is dominating both medium and long-term momentum. The index combines multiple quantitative measures (Hurst Exponent, Sharpe Ratio, variance, and CAGR) to assess how “healthy” a trend really is. At present, it’s anything but healthy.
🧭 Conclusion
BTC’s current structure has progressed in perfect order: bullish → warning → bearish. All three pillars — technical, sentiment, and statistical — are aligned to the downside.
In short, this is not a buy-the-dip environment. Short-term rallies are better viewed as opportunities to enter short positions, not long ones.
A shift to a bullish bias would require all three signals to reverse:
1. Yellow then Green candles reappearing on the price chart (after a yellow phase).
2. A visible improvement in sentiment. (composite indicator returning to positive readings).
3. Statistical momentum index recovering to at least 0.50.
Until then, caution remains the strategy.
If you’d like to discuss building highly effective trading indicators, feel free to drop a comment below.
And if you’re curious about how my main crypto bot is approaching the market right now, check the first comment.
Dagangan aktif
The 10/10 crash arrived exactly as forecasted.Now BTC is facing a true stress test — is it breaking, or just bending?
Full update here:
📊
Penafian
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Penafian
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.