High-risk, extreme reward event-driven contrarian/squeeze setup

Beyond Meat soared in 2019–2021 on blockbuster growth hopes, only to see its stock crater nearly 99% as reality fell short of hype. Sluggish consumer adoption, steep promotional discounts, and margin pressure dragged revenues from a 2020 peak of $419 M into multi-quarter declines. Recently, management has right-sized operations: Q4 2024 net revenues rose 4% YoY, cost-cutting measures are underway, and new product and foodservice partnerships are rolling out—even as the China business is suspended. Trading below 1× forward sales with ~25% short interest, BYND offers one of the most insane high-risk, event-driven contrarian setups I've ever seen ahead of the May 7 Q1 2025 report.

1. Implosion: What Happened?

1. Peak Hype & Insane Expectations
   Investors crowned BYND “the Tesla of food,” pricing in 100%+ growth on only ~$200 M in trailing revenues at IPO.
   
2. Missed Growth Targets
   2021 sales climbed just 37% to $464 M—well below the ~50% growth forecast—when heavy grocery promotions eroded prices.
   
3. Margin Squeeze
   Gross margins plunged from ~28% to ~10% as Beyond funded discounts in retail and co-promotions with foodservice chains.
   

2. Recent Fundamentals & Stabilization

1. Q4 2024 Turnaround Signs
   Net revenues of $83.1 M, up 4% YoY—the second straight quarterly increase after nine declines.
   
2. Cost-Cutting Initiatives
   U.S. plant scale-ups and supply-chain optimization trimmed per-unit costs; SG&A fell ~8% YoY.
   
3. 2025 Guidance
   Revenues guided to $320–335 M (flat vs. $326.5 M in 2024); management targets adjusted-EBITDA breakeven by Q4 2025.
   

3. Recent Initiatives & Partnerships

• Product Innovation: Fourth-gen Beyond Sausage (avocado oil formulation), “Beyond Sun” links, new pre-seasoned Beyond Steak flavors (chimichurri, Korean BBQ), and Crispy Nuggets for operators.
  
• Foodservice Expansion: Beyond Burger® and Nuggets added to cafeterias and chains; Veggie McPlant Nuggets at McDonald’s France; smash-burger trials at Tesco UK; Wendy’s Georgia plant-based burger in 19 locations.
  
• International Roll-outs: Retail launch of Beyond Steak in France and UK (Tortilla), expanded Europe/Middle East footprint.
  
• Operational Restructuring: Exiting China by mid-2025, laying off ~6–9% of workforce, consolidating co-packers, automating U.S. plants to chase a ~20% gross margin.
  

4. Valuation & Sentiment

• Trading at ~0.9× forward sales vs. peers at 1.5–5×.
  
• Short interest ~25% of float—one of small-cap’s highest.
  
• China exit & layoffs a margin catalyst; gross margin goal ~20% in 2025.
  
• New products and foodservice deals reinforce R&D and growth narrative.
  
• Q1 2025 earnings (May 7) could ignite a squeeze.
  

Catalysts

• Q1 2025 earnings (May 7) beat/guide-up.
  
• Roll-out of new sausage, steak & nugget products at major retailers.
  
• Further high-profile partnerships (Starbucks, Yum! Brands).
  

Final words
Beyond Meat’s meteoric rise and fall reflect expectations that outpaced execution. Today, early signs of revenue stabilization, aggressive cost cuts, product innovation, and a clear path to break-even—combined with a sub-1× sales valuation and sky-high short interest—create a classic event-driven contrarian opportunity. The May 7 Q1 2025 report is the next major inflection point.