trade idea

Energy crisis will deepen further in autumn. Russia’s decision to stop gas supplies to Europe is exacerbated by yesterday’s OPEC+ decision to cut crude oil production by 100,000 barrels per day beginning from October. The reason is to defend oil prices on the global market after Europe decided to cap price for the crude oil exported from Russia. The situation implies increasing spiral in energy prices which means bad news for the stock markets. The situation could be more severe than during covid, because of uncertain duration. We believe that the decision to cut oil production may create a short-term upward momentum for crude oil prices. We believe that the price drop is highly limited, while upside potential implies an attractive risk/return. We would consider building a swing trade long position around $86-$87 per barrel with potential swing to over $100 or even higher again.