OIL / CL - Large bullish weekly candle - Get ready for blastoff!

21 Jul 2018

This video discussed the large bullish weekly pinbar setup that has formed in light crude. I discussed the current market structure, trading tips and trade ideas. Notes from the video are posted below.

**Current Market Structure**
-Long term bullish trend
-Price has stayed within bullish channel
-Large bullish weekly candle from pullback off of key support

**Trading Tips**
-Chances are higher now that price makes a string bullish run up to $75 and may even make a quick run to 80.
-Keep in mind that oil is generally a volatile product and large out-sized moves are common.
-This can be traded as pure directional using either futures, CFDs, or ETFs(with oil exposure), but due to the high IV I am looking to get both directional and short premium, which can be done by selling puts.
-Either enter on a retracement around $69 (more risky) or a break above the weekly candle around $71.25(less risky)
-Price targets are $75 and $80

**Trade Ideas**
-Sold a put w/ $61.50 strike(15 delta, 30 DTE) when price was at $67
-Rolled that put up to $64 strike(17 delta, 27 DTE) when price was at $69
-Now that we have a price action signal I am considering rolling up to a 30 delta option($66) to get more directional
-Keep in mind that September light crude is at 68.14, $2 below spot price

24 Jul 2018

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entered a close order due to daily pinbar. See more details of that close order here

25 Jul 2018

Nota

Keep an eye on this folks, oil could definitely drop 2-4 handles. Very bearish pinbar from short term resistance. If we get a 64 to 66 print, I will definitely re-enter with a short put. If you are feeling risk, could short from here with a 1 handle stoploss.