DAX - MY PRIMARY SCENARIO FOR THE NEXT 4 - 6 MONTHS

10 Sep 2016

Predicting the future is not only impossible but arguably also meaningless to some extent. However, in this "game" I think it is good to have some kind of a vision where we could go in the near future. With that being said, we must always approach the market with an open mind, ready to change your mind if it doesn't play out like first expected. Mr. Market doesn't care what we think nor expect, since he is always right at the end of the day.

Alright, the chart is DAX weekly and it is quite obvious, that DAX has put in a series of higher lows & higher highs this year:

• Since the February bottom, DAX gained ~20% over the next ~70 days
  
• April top to June bottom, DAX declined ~12% over the next ~70 days
  
• From June bottom until now, DAX has gained ~17% (which is also roughly ~70 days)
  
• Bottom to bottom is ~6% and roughly 140 days in between
  
• Top to top is ~3% and roughly 130 days in between
  

Based on that historical price pattern this year, we could expect a decline starting this month towards the magical 10k level. September is seasonality wise also not a bullish month but towards the end of the year, seasonality is super bullish. Currently, I expect the bullish period to last until January - February 2017. That is; I'm expecting DAX to put in another higher high during the next 6 months with an target around 11 200-ish.