6/24/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: 
DXCM
Caught attention but need $80s minimally
before i started publishing my notes to myself a month and a half ago i had flagged this one after running thru several 13fs, this one showed up in Tiger's portfolio.
my impression is "wow" great growth, useful product/ moat and valuation too rich but let's see if i like it on a dip if/when
well i got the ding ding ding today and we crossed my "take a look" alarm
the market has changed meaningfully in the last two months. really a lack of breadth leading this toppy tape the longer we moved into june.
what i like aboutDXCM besides the above is that it's not "easily replaceable" by AI, which is the narrative murdering the software names, still (though I think they've temporarily bottomed out - at least relative to the market - which is still an important watch)
valuation on PE is a tough one for such good growth - always a trap - bc you get the idea that it's expensive so you don't buy it, but growth keeps beating and it ends up being cheap 2-3Y down the line. 70x is still rich. I'm willing to make peace at closer to 50x which still puts me closer to the 70s, but even in the 80s I'll take another look. I just can't stomach 1% fcf yield and 70x PE for an industry i'm less familiar with (medtech) in such toppy risk mkts.
BUT ITS ON THE SHORT LIST.
LMK if you have an experience or have looked at this one or if i should set a less greedy target.
V
DXCMCaught attention but need $80s minimally
before i started publishing my notes to myself a month and a half ago i had flagged this one after running thru several 13fs, this one showed up in Tiger's portfolio.
my impression is "wow" great growth, useful product/ moat and valuation too rich but let's see if i like it on a dip if/when
well i got the ding ding ding today and we crossed my "take a look" alarm
the market has changed meaningfully in the last two months. really a lack of breadth leading this toppy tape the longer we moved into june.
what i like about
DXCM besides the above is that it's not "easily replaceable" by AI, which is the narrative murdering the software names, still (though I think they've temporarily bottomed out - at least relative to the market - which is still an important watch)valuation on PE is a tough one for such good growth - always a trap - bc you get the idea that it's expensive so you don't buy it, but growth keeps beating and it ends up being cheap 2-3Y down the line. 70x is still rich. I'm willing to make peace at closer to 50x which still puts me closer to the 70s, but even in the 80s I'll take another look. I just can't stomach 1% fcf yield and 70x PE for an industry i'm less familiar with (medtech) in such toppy risk mkts.
BUT ITS ON THE SHORT LIST.
LMK if you have an experience or have looked at this one or if i should set a less greedy target.
V
Nota
Whoa.Big cut to guidance for a super high multiple stock. Flagged this concern in my original post above. Is it still a buy sub $80?
Short answer "no" it's not obvious.
I think it's really tough to own this for a fundamental retrace even though technically it's beaten to a pulp.
A good reminder that fundamentals and multiples do matter.
I'd guess we probably have a 5-handle at some pt in the coming weeks/ month ahead and perhaps at that point I'll initiate a position.
For those holding, tough spot. DM if you need to game out my thoughts. Rooting for you. But i'm still sidelines on this.
V
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.