DXY — 4H Fibonacci Discount Zone

DXY — 4H Fibonacci Discount Zone: bounce or breakdown?

Context (4H | Pre-London | 16 Oct)

Dollar Index is testing a 50% Fibonacci discount zone after an overnight -2 deviation.
Volume remains light, but buyers stepped in near the 98.2 region, defending short-term structure.

Big picture still leans bearish

Technical Map

• Structure: Consolidation within broader bearish context — 4H recovery attempts forming.
• Key Level: 98.2 acting as short-term decision point; deviation off 50% Fib zone.
• Momentum: −2 deviation within 4H range — early shift toward mean reversion.
• Volume: Heavy order flow support beneath 98.0; thin liquidity overhead until 98.6.

Structure overall remains bearish, but short-term momentum favors a corrective bid from the Fibonacci discount zone.

Fundamental Pulse

The Fed minutes gave us a small dip in yields, but the Dollar didn’t flinch — it’s still holding firm.

Sticky inflation keeps the Fed cautious, reinforcing that “higher-for-longer” tone.
Now all eyes turn to today’s CPI at 15:30 EET — the real test for rate expectations.
For now, rates steady, risk tone calm, traders waiting for direction.

Plan (If/Then)

If DXY pushes above 98.6, expect momentum toward the 99.0 zone.
Break below 98.05 reopens path toward 97.6–97.4 support band.
R:R potential ≈ 1 : 3 — solid setup if volatility expands post-CPI.
Stay patient and scale small before the CPI lands.

Mindset Pulse

Observation beats anticipation.
Let price confirm your story, not the other way around.
Stay aligned with structure; one mouse click can cost a narrative.