5/22/24 - $elf - setting up for taylor swift-kick-in-the-nuts?
5/22/24 - vrockstar - 
ELF - let's get real. the elf customer is probably sippin 
SBUX, buying at 
TGT and doing this all while wearing $lulu. while elf is a good discount brand, and that in theory *helps*... makeup is something that these customers already own a lot of... and if their replacement cycle starts to slow, or retailers are ordering in less inventory (*ahem* tgt)... this is MAD expensive at 50x next year EPS and even 30x on '27 PE. I'd love to eventually dip buy this but fear this is going to get the #taylor-swift-kick-in-the-pants treatment. i'm surprised the market is not more willing to sell these sorts of things first but the balance of risk looks more -ve here than +ve. i am not sure i'll short bc that's a miserable existance, but i'm tempted here if the chain looks to offer reasonable R/R. will keep you guys posted.
ELF - let's get real. the elf customer is probably sippin SBUX, buying at TGT and doing this all while wearing $lulu. while elf is a good discount brand, and that in theory *helps*... makeup is something that these customers already own a lot of... and if their replacement cycle starts to slow, or retailers are ordering in less inventory (*ahem* tgt)... this is MAD expensive at 50x next year EPS and even 30x on '27 PE. I'd love to eventually dip buy this but fear this is going to get the #taylor-swift-kick-in-the-pants treatment. i'm surprised the market is not more willing to sell these sorts of things first but the balance of risk looks more -ve here than +ve. i am not sure i'll short bc that's a miserable existance, but i'm tempted here if the chain looks to offer reasonable R/R. will keep you guys posted. Nota
After seeing the stock -10% AH... reverse and go +15% green, I'm tactically short here as funding for a few of my longs. I've seen these types run a few days, so i'm not large, and the result was defn not "bad", but at this valuation and speech about the consumer/ outlook... it's also not a +15% move worthy. safe out there fam.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.