ES Futures LONG Setup | 6462 → 6556

# 🚀 ES Futures LONG Setup | 6462 → 6556 🎯 (1:2 R\:R)

### 📝 Market Bias

* **Conditional Bullish** into US open.
* Higher-timeframe trend strong (price > 10/20/50/200 SMAs).
* **BUT** intraday momentum still mixed (MACD bearish) + thin overnight liquidity.
👉 **Trade ONLY if liquidity & momentum confirm at open.**

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### 🎯 Trade Idea

**Setup:** Conditional LONG (market open only)

* 📍 **Entry:** 6462.25 (acceptable range 6455 – 6475)
* 🛑 **Stop Loss:** 6415.15 (0.75 × ATR = 47.10 pts)
* 💰 **Take Profit:** 6556.45 (2 × stop = 94.20 pts)
* ⚖️ **Risk/Reward:** 1 : 2
* 💪 **Confidence:** 60%

**Risk/Reward per Contract:**

* ❌ Risk = \$2,355
* ✅ Reward = \$4,710

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### 📊 Position Sizing

* Formula: `contracts = floor((account_size × risk%) / (stop_pts × $50))`
* Example:

* \$100k acct @ 2% risk → 0 contracts (use micro/mini).
* \$200k acct → 1 contract.
* \$250k acct → 2 contracts.

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### 📈 Scale & Exits

* Take **50% profit @ 6509.35** (1× stop).
* Hold rest to **6556.45 TP**.
* Move stop to breakeven after scaling.

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### ⚠️ Key Risks

* Very thin overnight liquidity → slippage risk.
* MACD still bearish; must improve at open.
* Price near 20-day highs → upside limited.
* Event/headline risk at open.

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### ✅ Pre-Conditions (MUST at Open)

* Strong liquidity/volume vs overnight.
* Price holds above SMA10 & SMA20.
* Preferable: MACD histogram improves in 15–30 mins.
❌ If conditions fail → NO TRADE.

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### 📌 Trade JSON (For Algo/Notes)

```json
{
"instrument": "ES",
"direction": "long",
"entry_price": 6462.25,
"stop_loss": 6415.15,
"take_profit": 6556.45,
"size": 1,
"confidence": 0.60,
"entry_timing": "market_open",
"point_value": 50,
"signal_publish_time": "2025-08-25 15:47:27"
}
```

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### 🔖 Hashtags

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