ES (A++) — Plan, Key Levels & Fundamentals for Tue, Aug 26

Market context (quick read)

Price closed beneath the mid-range pivot (6,466–6,468) after repeated rejections from the 6,478–6,483 supply shelf. Immediate downside magnets are 6,457 → 6,453 → 6,441; deeper LVN/demand sits 6,398 → 6,370. Overhead, a squeeze can develop if we accept back above 6,48x toward 6,495 and the 6,50x handle.

Key levels (how to use them)
• 6,487–6,495 (PDH/PWH) – Last distribution. Acceptance above can extend to 6,505/6,510; rejection often rotates back to 6,48x.
• 6,478–6,483 (Supply shelf / bull-bear line) – Reclaiming/holding this band flips bias up; failure keeps pressure lower.
• 6,466–6,468 (Pivot shelf) – Doorway between upper/lower halves of the day’s composite.
• 6,457 (Monday’s low) – First support; loss opens 6,453 quickly.
• 6,453 (NYPM Low) – Breakdown confirmation level; below it, sellers typically press 6,441.
• 6,441 (AS Low / demand) – First HTF demand; acceptance below shifts auction to the lower deck.
• 6,398 → 6,370 (LVN / PWL) – Deeper targets if momentum expands.

Primary A++ setups (rule-based)
1. Acceptance Short (A++)
• Trigger: First 5m close < 6,452.
• Entry: 6,452 → 6,449 continuation.
• Initial SL: 6,460 (≤8 pts).
• TP1: 6,437 (+15) • TP2: 6,425 (+27) • TP3: 6,398 (+54).
• Management: If no extension within 2×5m bars, reduce/scratch; hard invalidate on 5m close > 6,457.
2. Acceptance Long (A++)
• Trigger: First 5m close ≥ 6,480–6,483.
• Entry: 6,480–6,483.
• Initial SL: 6,474 (6–9 pts; keep ≤8 if entering near 6,482).
• TP1: 6,495 (+12–15) • TP2: 6,505/6,510.
• Management: Invalidate on 5m close < 6,478 or no progress within 2×5m bars.


Fundamental “Risk Clock” — Tue, Aug 26 (ET)
• 08:30 — Advance Durable Goods Orders (July), U.S. Census Bureau. Official schedule lists Aug 26 at 8:30 a.m. ET. 
• 09:00 — S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index (June). SPDJI notes release 9:00 a.m. ET on the last Tuesday; FRED lists the next release date Aug 26, 2025.  
• 09:00 — FHFA House Price Index (June + Q2 report). FHFA calendar confirms Aug 26 (Quarterly with monthly tables). 
• 10:00 — Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Aug), next release Tue, Aug 26, 10:00 a.m. ET. 
• 10:00 — Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug). Richmond Fed schedule shows Tue, Aug 26 (10:00 a.m. typical). 
• 13:00 — U.S. Treasury 2-Year Note Auction. Official offering announcement sets auction date Aug 26, 2025; competitive close is typically 1:00 p.m. ET (non-comp 12:00 p.m. ET). 
• Bills (same day) — Treasury “Upcoming Auctions” lists 17-Week and 4-Week bills for Aug 26. 

This week’s broader context: Markets are watching NVIDIA and other tech/retail earnings plus Friday’s PCE inflation read; these can shift risk appetite around our levels. 

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Playbook integration (how the data can affect execution)
• Stronger durables / firmer confidence: If yields back up into the 2-year auction, equity indices often lean heavy—watch for rejection under 6,466–6,468 and a 5m break < 6,452 to trigger the short plan. (Scenario guidance, not a guarantee.)
• Softer durables / cooler housing prints: If risk appetite improves and we accept ≥ 6,480–6,483, use the long plan toward 6,495 → 6,505/6,510.
• Auction hour (12:50–13:10 ET): Expect a brief liquidity air-pocket; avoid fresh entries into the print and reassess after the first post-auction rotation. (Auction timing per Treasury norms above.)