2024 Market Direction Quarter 1 analysis
1/22/24
Created and Written By Joeseph Dennis
Crypto and Stock Market 2024 Outlook
Key Words this year please pay attention!
Accumulation period, FOMO and HODL
These three terms play into the events set out this year for the market outcome
Important Events:
Bitcoin Halving
SEC ETF
Federal Reserve meeting
2024 Presidential Election
Tech Earnings Call
Analysis:
So what's going on? Should we short or pour our life savings into the market?
Well, if you're a real investor, then you know the only way to " Predict " a market outlook is to do the following.
1. Check the facts and current state surrounding your proposal
2. Visit previous events and chart patterns of the last year or so
3. Find out what events are taking place throughout the entire year and take into account the possible effects these events could have
Today I will do that following what is listed above and estimate with the knowledge I am aware that remember nothing is 100% guaranteed only death!
2023 was a bullish year for stocks and if there's one stock that blew the world away it was NVIDIA. Not only reaching a market cap of 1.4 Trillion but also adding to what was previously known as the big 5 ( Apple, Google, Amazon, Tesla, and Microsoft ) is now the Magnificent Seven. But what was the actual conversation of the market in December of 2022?
Of course, it was the opposite of what actually took place Networks such as Fox Business and CNBC put the fear of GOD into " Investors" across America saying we were in for a huge downturn throughout the year when in reality Tech performed tremendously even better than 2021 and if Tech up then the S&P 500 also is. So what's the talk right now?
Again the outlook is supposed to be horrible and chaotic but is that far from the truth or is it accurate? The only way to tell is to leave fundamental analysis and use Technical analysis. If you were to view the Apple monthly and weekly time frame a week ago you would be certain that a crash is coming but right after the report that was released on rate pauses and a better outlook on 2024 the trend is turning up. But it doesn't excuse the fact that we are still overvalued as it is but it does change the narrative completely.
Technical Analysis:
From what I see Apple is set to try and rally to its resistance level of 200 to 205 then we can expect a sideways movement for the remainder of a week or two finally we see a big correction downwards which will once again remind people of the previous narrative of the hell we are " Suppose " to face all a year which will make the price drop even more when in reality is merely a retracement that right there is the game of Wall Street.
So what's my opinion? I think We will have a correction that will have Apple somewhere between 160 to 135 which will make SPY fall between 450 to 418 Again at the least. Should be bullish once again in the summertime. Why? well now you take into consideration The events held this year for the market most importantly the 2024 Presidential election as promises get made about the economy and as money pours into campaigns so does the market and let's not forget about the tech earnings. For example, Tesla if interests are up that affects the sales of Tesla buyers which makes earnings call lousy which makes Tesla fall and SPY fall and once again CNBC is back to putting fear into individuals. The game of Wall Street is dangerous but yet so simple in order to understand it you yourself must first be fooled.
In Summary for stocks, I believe we will see a top of 200 for Apple and a downtrend but not all year we should bounce right back upside throughout the rest of the year this is also the same for crypto but a little bit different which I will go over next.
Crypto:
Well, Last year I was right in saying Spy will pass 480 and FTX crypto dump was the rock bottom and end of the bear market for it and also Accurately saying Bitcoin will reach 30K by June of 2023. Hopefully, I can accurately predict this time around because this is when it really counts.
Portfolio And Price Prediction:
My range for this Bitcoin bull run is about a 1 Year and a half to the top expected top is 2025. The price target is 120K and my ETH target is 8K to 12K it is likely to start pushing up in April.
In order to grasp this claim one must understand what takes place in April which is the Bitcoin Halving. Every Bitcoin halving has had a strong effect on the Bitcoin price. There are two reasons for this.
The first is that the rewards are halved for miners, a process that promotes the sustainable growth of the network until the cap of 21 million tokens is reached.
The second is that the inflation rate decreases after each halving because the rate at which new Bitcoins are introduced into the market is slashed each time.
This factor comes down to simple supply and demand, in which there will be fewer Bitcoin tokens available to purchase, but with growing demand. This indicates that the price will increase over time.
The halving is also a central part of Bitcoin’s regular price behavior. Even though it seems chaotic, Bitcoin actually has a cyclical price pattern.
The cycle is made of roughly two years of rising prices leading up to the halving. This is followed by a year of sustained high prices. These stages are known as bull markets, in which price action is positive. This then leads to a year of low prices, known as a bear market.
Every halving in the history of the cryptocurrency has preceded a bull market for Bitcoin.
If BTC price starts reaching newer highs so does the rest of the ALT coins but that doesn't mean every ALT coin has uptrend potential it all depends on their network coin such as
ETH
SOLANA
BNB
ARB
TRON
LINEA
Certain tokens are affected by their network performance that's why most of my portfolio is in the ETH network chain which I believe is supposed to outperform everyone this run. If Bitcoin reaches my prediction of 120 Thousand I believe ETH will sit around 8 Thousand or even higher this could mean great returns on my altcoins with just a little push 2 Weeks ago set ETH to 2600 which pushed my altcoin portfolio up 3 Thousand Dollars and that was a 2 thousand dollars move to imagine the top of 8 Thousand!
For this cycle, I will have a 10 Thousand Dollar portfolio with expected gains of 30 Thousand to 120 Thousand excluding All meme tokens and low-security coins with high returns. If everything works 100% correct I will see a profit of 3.2 Million Dollars by 2025. Realistically the first estimate is what I'm betting on.
The only way I see a failure in my plans is one of the following
Unexpected War and health crisis
Major bank failures ( PNC, Wells Fargo JP Morgan )
Shut down of an exchange which will cause over 1 Billion in liquidated crypto assets such as FTX
Election Outcome:
Election is very important for the market because what an investor is looking for is who will help the economy improve and thrive. I myself want Trump to win not because I am a die-hard supporter. Still, factually he had the best economy in US history and outperformed our current president in the markets significantly. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has climbed 21.9% under Biden, whereas it grew 44.6% for Trump. The Nasdaq composite index is up 13.8% under Biden and was up 62% for Trump.
Conclusion:
This is my prediction and 2024 outlook I am almost certain I will be right but anything could happen there are no guarantees whatsoever every investor MUST do their own research and conduct their OWN emergency plans and plays it is up to YOU to know when to buy and sell not CNBC, not the FED, not CNN not Warren Buffet, not your friends not your neighbors and certainly not me. Have a great year! #don'tforgetaboutdogecoin
Created and Written By Joeseph Dennis
Crypto and Stock Market 2024 Outlook
Key Words this year please pay attention!
Accumulation period, FOMO and HODL
These three terms play into the events set out this year for the market outcome
Important Events:
Bitcoin Halving
SEC ETF
Federal Reserve meeting
2024 Presidential Election
Tech Earnings Call
Analysis:
So what's going on? Should we short or pour our life savings into the market?
Well, if you're a real investor, then you know the only way to " Predict " a market outlook is to do the following.
1. Check the facts and current state surrounding your proposal
2. Visit previous events and chart patterns of the last year or so
3. Find out what events are taking place throughout the entire year and take into account the possible effects these events could have
Today I will do that following what is listed above and estimate with the knowledge I am aware that remember nothing is 100% guaranteed only death!
2023 was a bullish year for stocks and if there's one stock that blew the world away it was NVIDIA. Not only reaching a market cap of 1.4 Trillion but also adding to what was previously known as the big 5 ( Apple, Google, Amazon, Tesla, and Microsoft ) is now the Magnificent Seven. But what was the actual conversation of the market in December of 2022?
Of course, it was the opposite of what actually took place Networks such as Fox Business and CNBC put the fear of GOD into " Investors" across America saying we were in for a huge downturn throughout the year when in reality Tech performed tremendously even better than 2021 and if Tech up then the S&P 500 also is. So what's the talk right now?
Again the outlook is supposed to be horrible and chaotic but is that far from the truth or is it accurate? The only way to tell is to leave fundamental analysis and use Technical analysis. If you were to view the Apple monthly and weekly time frame a week ago you would be certain that a crash is coming but right after the report that was released on rate pauses and a better outlook on 2024 the trend is turning up. But it doesn't excuse the fact that we are still overvalued as it is but it does change the narrative completely.
Technical Analysis:
From what I see Apple is set to try and rally to its resistance level of 200 to 205 then we can expect a sideways movement for the remainder of a week or two finally we see a big correction downwards which will once again remind people of the previous narrative of the hell we are " Suppose " to face all a year which will make the price drop even more when in reality is merely a retracement that right there is the game of Wall Street.
So what's my opinion? I think We will have a correction that will have Apple somewhere between 160 to 135 which will make SPY fall between 450 to 418 Again at the least. Should be bullish once again in the summertime. Why? well now you take into consideration The events held this year for the market most importantly the 2024 Presidential election as promises get made about the economy and as money pours into campaigns so does the market and let's not forget about the tech earnings. For example, Tesla if interests are up that affects the sales of Tesla buyers which makes earnings call lousy which makes Tesla fall and SPY fall and once again CNBC is back to putting fear into individuals. The game of Wall Street is dangerous but yet so simple in order to understand it you yourself must first be fooled.
In Summary for stocks, I believe we will see a top of 200 for Apple and a downtrend but not all year we should bounce right back upside throughout the rest of the year this is also the same for crypto but a little bit different which I will go over next.
Crypto:
Well, Last year I was right in saying Spy will pass 480 and FTX crypto dump was the rock bottom and end of the bear market for it and also Accurately saying Bitcoin will reach 30K by June of 2023. Hopefully, I can accurately predict this time around because this is when it really counts.
Portfolio And Price Prediction:
My range for this Bitcoin bull run is about a 1 Year and a half to the top expected top is 2025. The price target is 120K and my ETH target is 8K to 12K it is likely to start pushing up in April.
In order to grasp this claim one must understand what takes place in April which is the Bitcoin Halving. Every Bitcoin halving has had a strong effect on the Bitcoin price. There are two reasons for this.
The first is that the rewards are halved for miners, a process that promotes the sustainable growth of the network until the cap of 21 million tokens is reached.
The second is that the inflation rate decreases after each halving because the rate at which new Bitcoins are introduced into the market is slashed each time.
This factor comes down to simple supply and demand, in which there will be fewer Bitcoin tokens available to purchase, but with growing demand. This indicates that the price will increase over time.
The halving is also a central part of Bitcoin’s regular price behavior. Even though it seems chaotic, Bitcoin actually has a cyclical price pattern.
The cycle is made of roughly two years of rising prices leading up to the halving. This is followed by a year of sustained high prices. These stages are known as bull markets, in which price action is positive. This then leads to a year of low prices, known as a bear market.
Every halving in the history of the cryptocurrency has preceded a bull market for Bitcoin.
If BTC price starts reaching newer highs so does the rest of the ALT coins but that doesn't mean every ALT coin has uptrend potential it all depends on their network coin such as
ETH
SOLANA
BNB
ARB
TRON
LINEA
Certain tokens are affected by their network performance that's why most of my portfolio is in the ETH network chain which I believe is supposed to outperform everyone this run. If Bitcoin reaches my prediction of 120 Thousand I believe ETH will sit around 8 Thousand or even higher this could mean great returns on my altcoins with just a little push 2 Weeks ago set ETH to 2600 which pushed my altcoin portfolio up 3 Thousand Dollars and that was a 2 thousand dollars move to imagine the top of 8 Thousand!
For this cycle, I will have a 10 Thousand Dollar portfolio with expected gains of 30 Thousand to 120 Thousand excluding All meme tokens and low-security coins with high returns. If everything works 100% correct I will see a profit of 3.2 Million Dollars by 2025. Realistically the first estimate is what I'm betting on.
The only way I see a failure in my plans is one of the following
Unexpected War and health crisis
Major bank failures ( PNC, Wells Fargo JP Morgan )
Shut down of an exchange which will cause over 1 Billion in liquidated crypto assets such as FTX
Election Outcome:
Election is very important for the market because what an investor is looking for is who will help the economy improve and thrive. I myself want Trump to win not because I am a die-hard supporter. Still, factually he had the best economy in US history and outperformed our current president in the markets significantly. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has climbed 21.9% under Biden, whereas it grew 44.6% for Trump. The Nasdaq composite index is up 13.8% under Biden and was up 62% for Trump.
Conclusion:
This is my prediction and 2024 outlook I am almost certain I will be right but anything could happen there are no guarantees whatsoever every investor MUST do their own research and conduct their OWN emergency plans and plays it is up to YOU to know when to buy and sell not CNBC, not the FED, not CNN not Warren Buffet, not your friends not your neighbors and certainly not me. Have a great year! #don'tforgetaboutdogecoin
Penafian
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