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Structure & Key Levels
Mid-term structure: A fast rally followed by sideways consolidation; pullback from the right-hand high, then grinding up → retrace → range. Trend not confirmed—range trading remains the base case.
Key candles: Two extreme volume bars (one near the vertical marker, one near the right-hand close) both occurred near the lows, typical of capitulation/passive rotation. Price quickly snapped back afterward, indicating solid demand/absorption at the lows.
Support zones
$3,900–3,915: Range midpoint; multiple successful retests.
$3,860–3,880: Long-wick, high-volume “protection” area; a break turns the structure bearish.
Resistance zones
$3,965–3,985: Recent range highs/high-volume node.
$4,015–4,030: Prior selloff origin; first touch likely meets supply.
Price–Volume Read
During the advance, volume did not expand, suggesting short covering + seller exhaustion rather than fresh long participation.
Two high-volume down bars/long lower wicks were quickly reclaimed—buyers more active at lows.
As price entered $3,965–3,985, volume faded, implying weak chase; likely needs another shakeout or a volume push to break through.
Two Trading Playbooks
A) Range Reversion (primary for now)
Short trigger: Tap $3,965–3,985 and print an M5 false breakout + reversal BOS with sell-side expansion.
Targets: $3,935 → $3,915
Invalidation: A 15m close above $3,985 followed by a successful retest/hold—abort shorts.
Long trigger: Pull back to $3,900–3,915 with declining volume → bullish expansion, and reclaim McGinley/TWAP.
Targets: $3,955 → $3,980
Invalidation: A 15m close below $3,900.
B) Breakout Continuation (backup plan)
Upside: A decisive break and 15m close above $3,985 (ideally on rising volume). Buy the retest of $3,965–3,980 if it holds.
Targets: $4,015 → $4,030 (prior supply; scale out).
Downside: A clean break below $3,900 with a failed retest (rejection).
Targets: $3,880 → $3,860; if heavy volume persists, watch $3,825–3,835 as prior support.
Structure & Key Levels
Mid-term structure: A fast rally followed by sideways consolidation; pullback from the right-hand high, then grinding up → retrace → range. Trend not confirmed—range trading remains the base case.
Key candles: Two extreme volume bars (one near the vertical marker, one near the right-hand close) both occurred near the lows, typical of capitulation/passive rotation. Price quickly snapped back afterward, indicating solid demand/absorption at the lows.
Support zones
$3,900–3,915: Range midpoint; multiple successful retests.
$3,860–3,880: Long-wick, high-volume “protection” area; a break turns the structure bearish.
Resistance zones
$3,965–3,985: Recent range highs/high-volume node.
$4,015–4,030: Prior selloff origin; first touch likely meets supply.
Price–Volume Read
During the advance, volume did not expand, suggesting short covering + seller exhaustion rather than fresh long participation.
Two high-volume down bars/long lower wicks were quickly reclaimed—buyers more active at lows.
As price entered $3,965–3,985, volume faded, implying weak chase; likely needs another shakeout or a volume push to break through.
Two Trading Playbooks
A) Range Reversion (primary for now)
Short trigger: Tap $3,965–3,985 and print an M5 false breakout + reversal BOS with sell-side expansion.
Targets: $3,935 → $3,915
Invalidation: A 15m close above $3,985 followed by a successful retest/hold—abort shorts.
Long trigger: Pull back to $3,900–3,915 with declining volume → bullish expansion, and reclaim McGinley/TWAP.
Targets: $3,955 → $3,980
Invalidation: A 15m close below $3,900.
B) Breakout Continuation (backup plan)
Upside: A decisive break and 15m close above $3,985 (ideally on rising volume). Buy the retest of $3,965–3,980 if it holds.
Targets: $4,015 → $4,030 (prior supply; scale out).
Downside: A clean break below $3,900 with a failed retest (rejection).
Targets: $3,880 → $3,860; if heavy volume persists, watch $3,825–3,835 as prior support.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.