Short $GBPUSD with Election Year Seasonality

17 Jun 2020

On average during election years, the pound has a sharp selloff beginning around June 15 - June 20 during election years that lasts the remainder of the year. There has been plenty of volatility in currencies and equities this year because of the virus reset, and this volatility can continue to year end.

The target shown is just a minimum target, however a portion of the original short could be held until the end of the year and stops adjusted to break even once this target is satisfied.

17 Jun 2020

Nota

The following seasonal profile averages the performance of GBPUSD for the previous 9 election cycles (fitted 2020 performance to observe the peaks/valleys). The remainder of the year is shown as a thinner yellow silhouette.

A hallmark example of this performance is 2016.

17 Jun 2020

Nota

EURUSD shows similar selling during election years, which basically means that DXY is rather strong during elections.

18 Jun 2020

Nota

Today’s BOE meeting very well could be that slight peak in the seasonal profile that we observe this time each year in June. It is a moving target so the peak date is the average.

21 Jun 2020

Nota

Small profit taken here at the month pivot, half way to target.