Possible gold (GLD) trade

4 Apr

So apparently the reason why gold fell this morning is because gold has 8% tariff premium built in, that is what the March pump was all about. Turns out gold is exempt from tariffs, and so is silver, so silver dumped the entire March pump.

So the fact that gold is exempt from tariffs basically means that it basically got pumped 8% today because it didn't drop like silver did. Yeah, tariffs were a shock but not 8% gold pump shock. Also, teh demand for physical gold will go down because apparently there was a lot of pre-buying in anticipation of the tariffs, plus people will have less disposable income.

The play here is that if GLD posts a red bar or falls below today's open, then I'm buying puts. Futures are green so I'm not sure if that will be tomorrow or Monday.... though there may be a drop Monday regardless as people actually read news over teh weekend. I should have yesterday before I posted, lol. My bad.

4 Apr

Nota

Note
It would be crazy for anyone that has physical gold inventory, like dealers and processors, to NOT short gold futures right now with 8% premium. Same with producers, I'd be selling futures like crazy to lock in teh high price.

Explains what happened during Euro hours this morning. Also explains why there appeared to be resistance all day.

4 Apr

Nota

Looks like Congress might block the tariffs, if that happens gold is gonna tank hard.

I think teh market is gonna bounce up on hopes that they do.

4 Apr

Nota

Looks like teh Europeans woke up and got to their office, gold futures now red

4 Apr

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Well not active yet, but I plan to at least buy a few puts tomorrow as I expect various congressmen will be talking about rescinding the tariffs over the weekend.

Market goes up and gold goes down on hope as congressmen try to prevent a full on market crash.

BTW, I always short with puts, not inverse ETFs because it limits the losses in case something bad happens over the weekend causing gold to spike. Trump wants to bomb Iran...

4 Apr

Nota

BUY PUTS ONLY IF IT FINISHED RED TODAY OR IF THE MARKET BOUNCES UP

They're pumping gold futures premarket

5 Apr

Nota

Got in on open and added some on the rebound after open. Small trade because I already lost all of my profits for the year getting whipsawed by the algos before the announcement and also my gold long trade which I bailed out on too early.

Next time Trump talks, I'm gonna sit out, and trade after the announcement, lol.

ANyways, I held my puts, I have a $4 cushion, and I don't think gold is gonna gap up that much, lol. I am expecting EUrope to sell again Monday, so it's a gap play at this point. Note that gold sold off all morning until the Euros went to bed. All of the selling is during Euro hours. The EOD pump is pretty meaningless because I think the Euros are selling based on the tariff premium, so it's about the target point, not about how much US drops or pumps.

5 Apr

Nota

This is really a gap trade for Monday, I'm cashing out by Tuesday. If the gap is big enough, I may cash out Monday at open. We'll see what happens.

I'm not bearish on gold long term, inflation from tariffs will be huge, but then we'll get deflation after that since all commodity prices have dropped. The Powell will cut rates because of employment numbers which will cause gold to go back up.

That is my prediction.

9 Apr

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Closed the trade, used the money elsewhere.

Wish I had closed it out yesterday, but tough to tell where the bottom is sometimes when it doesn't quite reach your target.

I made a 200% return though but I could've made more if I hadn't got greedy.

11 Apr

Nota

APPARENTLY THIS WAS ALL WRONG AND THE MOVEMENT IN GOLD WAS DUE TO CURRENCY FLUCTUATIONS, see update gold posts