- 
HIMS is quite overvalued. There's no moat to a business model.
- They got a good branding that's all. There are 10-15 other startups selling the same things under different umbrella.
- They even stole
NVO flagship weight loss drugs. These cheap alternatives will risk lives of people and will open plethora of lawsuits.
- Growth is slowing down to low 20s which calls for correction in the multiple.
- Anyone paying more than 20x will likely suffer from massive losses within an year timeframe.
- Fundamentally,
Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028
EPS | 0.57 | 0.79 | 1.05 | 1.40
EPS% | 5.76% | 38.31% | 32.59% | 33.25%
Giving benefit of doubt and being generous, 30x multiple as a base case. Fair stock value:
Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028
Price | $17 | $23 | $31 | $42
- We should visit the $23-26 range somewhere in 2026
HIMS is quite overvalued. There's no moat to a business model. - They got a good branding that's all. There are 10-15 other startups selling the same things under different umbrella.
- They even stole
NVO flagship weight loss drugs. These cheap alternatives will risk lives of people and will open plethora of lawsuits. - Growth is slowing down to low 20s which calls for correction in the multiple.
- Anyone paying more than 20x will likely suffer from massive losses within an year timeframe.
- Fundamentally,
Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028
EPS | 0.57 | 0.79 | 1.05 | 1.40
EPS% | 5.76% | 38.31% | 32.59% | 33.25%
Giving benefit of doubt and being generous, 30x multiple as a base case. Fair stock value:
Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028
Price | $17 | $23 | $31 | $42
- We should visit the $23-26 range somewhere in 2026
Nota
- Given the stock is currently trading at $52.54 as of October 4, 2025. Risk/Reward is to the downside.-
HIMS could crash around 50% within one year
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Penerbitan berkaitan
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.