MSTR: The Software Company That Gave Up on Software
MSTR The Next Barings Bank - Short to Zero
MicroStrategy (MSTR) stopped being a software company years ago. They couldn't grow revenue, so Michael Saylor found a new pitch: leverage the entire company to buy Bitcoin and sell the "vision" to retail investors.
The Revenue Reality:
2015: $529.87M revenue
2021: $510.76M revenue (DOWN after 6 years)
2023: $496.26M revenue
2024: $463.46M revenue
TTM: $474.94M revenue
Ten years. NEGATIVE revenue growth.
When you can't grow your actual business, you pivot to selling a pipe dream. That's exactly what Saylor did.
The Ponzi Structure
Here's the model:
Borrow billions to buy Bitcoin
Bitcoin goes up (hopefully)
Stock goes up because you "own Bitcoin"
Issue more stock at inflated prices
Buy more Bitcoin with diluted shares
Repeat until it breaks
The problem: They have no control over Bitcoin long-term. They can move it short-term with their buying, but in reality? They're passengers on a volatile asset with $7.26B in debt.
The Numbers Don't Lie
Balance Sheet Explosion:
Total debt 2019: $0
Total debt 2024: $7.26B
Total assets jumped from $4.76B (2023) to $25.84B (2024) - all Bitcoin
Revenue declining while taking on billions in debt
Operating Performance:
Net income 2024: -$1.17B (loss)
Net margin: -3,797% (you read that right)
Operating income: -$63.12M (negative)
Free cash flow 2024: -$66.51M (-780% change)
EBITDA 2024: -$24.53M
The actual software business is dying while Saylor pumps Bitcoin on Twitter.
Barings Bank 2.0: The Nick Leeson Parallel
In 1995, Nick Leeson was a derivatives trader at Barings Bank. He bought Nikkei futures at the 40-year top, kept doubling down to cover losses, and hid everything in error account 88888.
Result: 233-year-old bank collapsed in weeks.
Michael Saylor is doing the exact same thing:
Leveraged to the tits buying Bitcoin near tops
$7.26B in debt on a declining software business
No way out if Bitcoin crashes
The interest payments alone will kill him
The market already knows: While Nasdaq hits all-time highs, MSTR is 50% off its highs.
That's not a dip. That's the market pricing in the collapse before it happens.
The Technical Setup
Current price: ~$269
Key breakdown level: $230
If $230 breaks:
Next stop: $180 (support from previous consolidation)
Then: $114 area (major support zone)
Ultimate target: $0
Why these areas matter:
$230 = Last line of defense before panic selling
$180 = Where late buyers give up hope
$114 = Pre-Bitcoin-mania valuation (actual software business worth)
$0 = When the debt spiral becomes unsustainable
Chart pattern: Classic distribution. Lower highs, weakening momentum, while indices rip higher.
The Catalyst: Bitcoin Goes Into Crypto Winter
When Bitcoin cracks (see my other post on October 10th liquidation):
The death spiral:
Bitcoin drops 50%+
MSTR's "asset base" collapses
Debt-to-equity ratio explodes
Credit downgrades trigger margin calls
Forced liquidation of Bitcoin holdings
More Bitcoin selling accelerates crypto winter
MSTR goes to zero
Saylor's only escape: Bitcoin stays elevated forever AND he can keep issuing diluted shares to cover debt payments.
Reality: Neither of those things will likely to happen.
The Pipe Dream They're Selling
"We're a Bitcoin treasury company!"
No. You're a failing software company with declining revenue that gambled the entire operation on a volatile asset you can't control.
You can't control Bitcoin's price long-term
You can't control regulatory changes
You can't control macro conditions
You can't control when crypto winter comes
You're just holding bags with $7.26B in debt.
The Short Thesis
Entry: Current levels ($269) or breakdown below $230
Targets:
First target: $180
Second target: $114
Ultimate target: $0
Stop loss: Above $320 (invalidation if Bitcoin makes new highs and MSTR participates)
Timeframe: 6-18 months for full thesis to play out
Catalysts:
Bitcoin entering crypto winter (foundation cracked October 10th)
Credit downgrades
Forced Bitcoin liquidation
Revenue continues declining
Debt payments become unsustainable
Risk Factors
What could go wrong with this short:
Bitcoin has a blow-off top before winter
Saylor successfully issues more diluted shares at elevated prices
Retail continues buying the "Bitcoin exposure" narrative
Some institution bails him out (unlikely)
Why I'm short:
The math doesn't work. You can't have:
Negative revenue growth for a decade
$7.26B in debt
No control over your primary asset
Negative operating cash flow
...and survive when that asset drops 70-80% (which it will).
The Comparison
1995: Nick Leeson buys Nikkei futures at 40-year top
Doubles down with borrowed money
Hides losses in account 88888
Collapses 233-year-old Barings Bank
2025: Michael Saylor buys Bitcoin near all-time highs
Leverages entire company with $7.26B debt
Pumps Bitcoin on Twitter while software business dies
About to collapse MSTR
History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes.
Final Word
The market is telling you everything you need to know:
Nasdaq: All-time highs
Bitcoin: Near all-time highs
MSTR: Down 50% from highs
When the asset you're leveraged on is strong, and the indices are strong, but YOUR STOCK is down 50%...
The market is pricing in collapse.
MSTR → Zero
#MSTR #Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoWinter #ShortSetup #TechnicalAnalysis #Leverage #DebtCrisis
MicroStrategy (MSTR) stopped being a software company years ago. They couldn't grow revenue, so Michael Saylor found a new pitch: leverage the entire company to buy Bitcoin and sell the "vision" to retail investors.
The Revenue Reality:
2015: $529.87M revenue
2021: $510.76M revenue (DOWN after 6 years)
2023: $496.26M revenue
2024: $463.46M revenue
TTM: $474.94M revenue
Ten years. NEGATIVE revenue growth.
When you can't grow your actual business, you pivot to selling a pipe dream. That's exactly what Saylor did.
The Ponzi Structure
Here's the model:
Borrow billions to buy Bitcoin
Bitcoin goes up (hopefully)
Stock goes up because you "own Bitcoin"
Issue more stock at inflated prices
Buy more Bitcoin with diluted shares
Repeat until it breaks
The problem: They have no control over Bitcoin long-term. They can move it short-term with their buying, but in reality? They're passengers on a volatile asset with $7.26B in debt.
The Numbers Don't Lie
Balance Sheet Explosion:
Total debt 2019: $0
Total debt 2024: $7.26B
Total assets jumped from $4.76B (2023) to $25.84B (2024) - all Bitcoin
Revenue declining while taking on billions in debt
Operating Performance:
Net income 2024: -$1.17B (loss)
Net margin: -3,797% (you read that right)
Operating income: -$63.12M (negative)
Free cash flow 2024: -$66.51M (-780% change)
EBITDA 2024: -$24.53M
The actual software business is dying while Saylor pumps Bitcoin on Twitter.
Barings Bank 2.0: The Nick Leeson Parallel
In 1995, Nick Leeson was a derivatives trader at Barings Bank. He bought Nikkei futures at the 40-year top, kept doubling down to cover losses, and hid everything in error account 88888.
Result: 233-year-old bank collapsed in weeks.
Michael Saylor is doing the exact same thing:
Leveraged to the tits buying Bitcoin near tops
$7.26B in debt on a declining software business
No way out if Bitcoin crashes
The interest payments alone will kill him
The market already knows: While Nasdaq hits all-time highs, MSTR is 50% off its highs.
That's not a dip. That's the market pricing in the collapse before it happens.
The Technical Setup
Current price: ~$269
Key breakdown level: $230
If $230 breaks:
Next stop: $180 (support from previous consolidation)
Then: $114 area (major support zone)
Ultimate target: $0
Why these areas matter:
$230 = Last line of defense before panic selling
$180 = Where late buyers give up hope
$114 = Pre-Bitcoin-mania valuation (actual software business worth)
$0 = When the debt spiral becomes unsustainable
Chart pattern: Classic distribution. Lower highs, weakening momentum, while indices rip higher.
The Catalyst: Bitcoin Goes Into Crypto Winter
When Bitcoin cracks (see my other post on October 10th liquidation):
The death spiral:
Bitcoin drops 50%+
MSTR's "asset base" collapses
Debt-to-equity ratio explodes
Credit downgrades trigger margin calls
Forced liquidation of Bitcoin holdings
More Bitcoin selling accelerates crypto winter
MSTR goes to zero
Saylor's only escape: Bitcoin stays elevated forever AND he can keep issuing diluted shares to cover debt payments.
Reality: Neither of those things will likely to happen.
The Pipe Dream They're Selling
"We're a Bitcoin treasury company!"
No. You're a failing software company with declining revenue that gambled the entire operation on a volatile asset you can't control.
You can't control Bitcoin's price long-term
You can't control regulatory changes
You can't control macro conditions
You can't control when crypto winter comes
You're just holding bags with $7.26B in debt.
The Short Thesis
Entry: Current levels ($269) or breakdown below $230
Targets:
First target: $180
Second target: $114
Ultimate target: $0
Stop loss: Above $320 (invalidation if Bitcoin makes new highs and MSTR participates)
Timeframe: 6-18 months for full thesis to play out
Catalysts:
Bitcoin entering crypto winter (foundation cracked October 10th)
Credit downgrades
Forced Bitcoin liquidation
Revenue continues declining
Debt payments become unsustainable
Risk Factors
What could go wrong with this short:
Bitcoin has a blow-off top before winter
Saylor successfully issues more diluted shares at elevated prices
Retail continues buying the "Bitcoin exposure" narrative
Some institution bails him out (unlikely)
Why I'm short:
The math doesn't work. You can't have:
Negative revenue growth for a decade
$7.26B in debt
No control over your primary asset
Negative operating cash flow
...and survive when that asset drops 70-80% (which it will).
The Comparison
1995: Nick Leeson buys Nikkei futures at 40-year top
Doubles down with borrowed money
Hides losses in account 88888
Collapses 233-year-old Barings Bank
2025: Michael Saylor buys Bitcoin near all-time highs
Leverages entire company with $7.26B debt
Pumps Bitcoin on Twitter while software business dies
About to collapse MSTR
History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes.
Final Word
The market is telling you everything you need to know:
Nasdaq: All-time highs
Bitcoin: Near all-time highs
MSTR: Down 50% from highs
When the asset you're leveraged on is strong, and the indices are strong, but YOUR STOCK is down 50%...
The market is pricing in collapse.
MSTR → Zero
#MSTR #Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoWinter #ShortSetup #TechnicalAnalysis #Leverage #DebtCrisis
Dagangan aktif
# MSTR Update: Now Diluting Europeans TooQuick update on the MSTR short thesis:
Yesterday Saylor sailed across the pond - literally. Raised €620M ($680M) selling perpetual preferred stock at €80/share to European investors.
The playbook continues:
1. Bitcoin pumps → MSTR pumps
2. Issue more diluted shares/preferreds at inflated prices
3. Use retail's money to buy more Bitcoin
4. Pump it on Twitter
5. Repeat until it breaks
What this tells us:
He's desperately raising capital because the underlying business generates ZERO cash flow. Now he's not just diluting US retail - he's taking European money too.
The fact that he needs to keep issuing equity and preferreds confirms what we already know: no operational cash flow = perpetual fundraising cycle just to service debt and buy more Bitcoin.
The math still doesn't work:
- Revenue declining for a decade ✓
- $7.26B+ in debt (now adding €620M more) ✓
- No control over Bitcoin ✓
- Negative operating cash flow ✓
- 50% down from highs while Nasdaq rips ✓
Classic ponzi mechanics: need new money to keep the scheme going.
If/when Bitcoin enters crypto winter (foundation cracked October 10th), the debt spiral becomes unsustainable.
Position unchanged: MSTR → Zero
Markets can stay irrational longer than most can remain solvent. But the European dilution is confirmation we're watching Barings 2.0 in slow motion.
#MSTR #Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoWinter #Dilution #DebtSpiral
Nota
#MSTR: Distribution on a Green DayDate: November 10, 2025
Today's Dow leaders:
NVDA +5.79%
MSFT +1.85%
MMM +1.72%
AMZN +1.63%
CSCO +1.44%
GS +1.38%
JPM +0.85%
but
MSTR: -1.26%
Bitcoin down only -0.97%.
What This Means
When tech stocks rip and MSTR can't catch a bid, that's institutions distributing. They're using market strength to exit positions without crashing the stock.
Smart money isn't waiting for Bitcoin to hit $74K - they're leaving now.
The Trap
Saylor just sold preferred shares to keep buying Bitcoin. That's not strength - that's feeding a machine that requires continuous capital because the software business generates no cash.
Worse: The entire market saw his "X" post and at ~$74K Bitcoin, the value of his holdings will be zero and will forces liquidation actions. The guys showed the whole market where his stops are. When everyone sees where you have to sell, that level becomes a target. And in this case a HUGE target.
The Nick Leeson Problem, Barings Bank 1995:
Everyone saw Leeson's positions
Everyone knew his levels
Everyone knew he couldn't stop doubling down
The market tore him apart
Saylor's in the same trap:
Can't stop buying (kills the narrative)
Can't sell (triggers collapse)
Can't hide (SEC disclosure)
Liquidation level is public
The Cascade
If Bitcoin tests $74K:
Forced MSTR selling to maintain covenants
That pressure hits Bitcoin
Bitcoin breaks $74K
More forced selling triggers
MSTR implodes
The fact that institutions are selling MSTR on a huge green day tells you they're frontrunning this scenario.
Bull case:
Bitcoin quickly makes it above $110K and everyone starts eyeing new highs
MSTR participates... or not!
Bottom Line
When a leveraged vehicle underperforms on the best days, institutions are telling you something.
They're not waiting for the crash. They're leaving before the exits get crowded.
Not investment advice. #MSTR is high-volatility stock- use stops and do not chase!
Penafian
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Penafian
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.