LNG Week 44: 80 BCF Storage Gain as Demand Edges Supply

*Due to the platform's features, the charts are arranged in sequence from left to right, from the first to the Eighth chart. The charts were created by our team and based on an analysis from Bloomberg and the EIA data. This analysis was conducted in cooperation with Anastasia Volkova, analyst of LSE.
Current prices compared to price dispersion 10 days before expiration, by month since 2010
[Chart-1]
The expiration of the NGX25 contract was above the median according to data from 2010. Quotations for December and winter contracts for 2026 support growth and remain above the upper limit of the interquartile range. 

Forward curve compared to 2020-2025
[Chart-2]
The shape of the forward curve in 2025 shows a steady convergence and is even closer to the configurations recorded in 2023 and 2024 for comparable dates. This trend is particularly evident in contracts with delivery in three years or more, where prices are steadily converging towards historical levels.

Current stocks and forecast for next week compared to 2019-2024
[Chart-3]
According to the forecast for week 43 (October 20-26), gas reserves in underground storage facilities will increase by +80 BCF, which is slightly above the average of +78 BCF for the past 5 years.

15-day sliding sum HDD+CDD based on current NOAA data and forecast for the next two weeks compared to 1994-2024
[Chart-4]
The current values of HDD+CDD accumulated over 15 days are in the average range for 1994–2024. The forecast for the coming week suggests that the values will exceed the average by 15–20 points, but in two weeks, there will be a trend toward returning to the average and below.
 
Accumulated HDD+CDD for 15 days based on current NOAA data and forecast compared to 1994-2024 by region
[Chart-5]
The current values of HDD+CDD accumulated over 15 days remain within the average range for 1994–2024. The forecast for the next two weeks suggests a return to the average weather trend in all regions. 

Weekly total supply/demand difference compared to 2014-2024
[Chart-6]
This week, the difference between supply and demand in 2025 rose above the average values for 2014–2024, indicating that demand is growing faster than supply.

Number of days for delivery from warehouses
[Chart-7]
The graph shows the number of days of supply from storage facilities alone, based on current consumption levels. At the end of October 2025, reserves will last for approximately 34 days, which is below the lower limit of the interquartile range. With such a moderately reduced level of reserves, even minor disruptions in production or spikes in demand could cause sharp price reactions, especially in late winter and early spring. 

Anomalies in weather (HDD+CDD) and fundamental factors
[Chart-8]
Overall, fundamental and weather factors are within the expected range, except for continued growth in consumption in the residential and commercial sectors caused by the start of the heating season. However, there has been no significant cooling at the start of the heating season so far.