Basis previous channel breakouts, the third channel formation is likely.
Why downward channel, and not upward or horizontal channel?
The supply chain shocks of war and petrol price/commodity price shocks will be evident in Jan quarter, results till force downward channel
Fundamentals
USD-INR - Negatives, FII unlikely to comeback immediately
May - 0.5% hike confirmed by Fed, Market will start slowly factoring it in
Oil - To be within 70-110 USD range, will hit margins
Banks - FII offloading will offset gains due to good results - as seen in Dec q results
RBI Hike - Imminent, will see in April first week
Valuations - NIFTY at historic high PE valuation, March rerating unlike to bring it below 18
Unknowns
Massive ceasefire and lifting of sanctions in 1 month (unlikely) will see breach of 17800
COVID breakout and lockdown in Shenzhen/HK - massive supply chain shock can cause major downside
Fed increasing 0.75% due to 10% inflation in US can cause 15k to be broken
Why downward channel, and not upward or horizontal channel?
The supply chain shocks of war and petrol price/commodity price shocks will be evident in Jan quarter, results till force downward channel
Fundamentals
USD-INR - Negatives, FII unlikely to comeback immediately
May - 0.5% hike confirmed by Fed, Market will start slowly factoring it in
Oil - To be within 70-110 USD range, will hit margins
Banks - FII offloading will offset gains due to good results - as seen in Dec q results
RBI Hike - Imminent, will see in April first week
Valuations - NIFTY at historic high PE valuation, March rerating unlike to bring it below 18
Unknowns
Massive ceasefire and lifting of sanctions in 1 month (unlikely) will see breach of 17800
COVID breakout and lockdown in Shenzhen/HK - massive supply chain shock can cause major downside
Fed increasing 0.75% due to 10% inflation in US can cause 15k to be broken
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.