Structured outlook, breaking down the key factors:
1. The Prevailing Market Context (Likely Scenario in Dec 2025)
While cannot predict exact levels, can infer the probable economic setting:
Inflation Trajectory: By late 2025, headline CPI inflation is likely to be closer to the RBI's 4% target, but the focus will be on its sustainability and food price volatility.
Growth Dynamics: The Indian economy should be in a steady growth phase, but the RBI's stance will depend on global demand and domestic investment cycles.
Global Cues: The stance of the US Federal Reserve (likely in a rate-cutting cycle or on hold by then) and global risk sentiment will be crucial.
Domestic Liquidity: The banking system's liquidity conditions will be a key factor the RBI addresses.
2. Market Expectations from RBI (The Core Catalyst)
The price action will be driven by whether the outcome is Hawkish, Dovish, or Neutral relative to these expectations.
Consensus Expectation (Baseline): The most likely scenario is the RBI maintaining the Repo Rate unchanged with a stance of "withdrawal of accommodation" or a shift to "neutral." The focus will be on:
Growth-Inflation Forecasts: Revisions to FY26 GDP and CPI projections.
Liquidity Management: Comments on permanent vs. temporary liquidity tools.
Governor's Commentary: Tone on food inflation, global spillovers, and future guidance.
3. Key Sectors to Watch
Rate Sensitives: Banks (HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, SBI), NBFCs (Bajaj Finance), Auto, Real Estate. Maximum volatility.
Domestic Cyclicals: Infrastructure, Capital Goods. Reaction to RBI's growth outlook.
Defensives: IT, Pharma, FMCG. Could see safe-haven flows if the tone is hawkish.
[Level Interpretation / description:
L#1: If the candle crossed & stays above the “Buy Gen”, it is treated / considered as Bullish bias.
L#2: Possibility / Probability of REVERSAL near RLB#1 & UBTgt
L#3: If the candle stays above “Sell Gen” but below “Buy Gen”, it is treated / considered as Sidewise. Aggressive Traders can take Long position near “Sell Gen” either retesting or crossed from Below & vice-versa i.e. can take Short position near “Buy Gen” either retesting or crossed downward from Above.
L#4: If the candle crossed & stays below the “Sell Gen”, it is treated / considered a Bearish bias.
L#5: Possibility / Probability of REVERSAL near RLS#1 & USTgt
HZB (Buy side) & HZS (Sell side) => Hurdle Zone,
*** Specialty of “HZB#1, HZB#2 HZS#1 & HZS#2” is Sidewise (behaviour in Nature)
Rest Plotted and Mentioned on Chart
Color code Used:
Green =. Positive bias.
Red =. Negative bias.
RED in Between Green means Trend Finder / Momentum Change
/ CYCLE Change and Vice Versa.
Notice One thing: HOW LEVELS are Working.
Use any Momentum Indicator / Oscillatoror as you "USED to" to Take entry.
⚠️ DISCLAIMER:
The information, views, and ideas shared here are purely for educational and informational purposes only. They are not intended as investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instruments. I am not a SEBI-registered financial adviser.
Trading and investing in the stock market involves risk, and you should do your own research and analysis. You are solely responsible for any decisions made based on this research.
"As HARD EARNED MONEY IS YOUR's, So DECISION SHOULD HAVE TO BE YOUR's".
Do comment if Helpful.
Follow notification about periodical View
1. The Prevailing Market Context (Likely Scenario in Dec 2025)
While cannot predict exact levels, can infer the probable economic setting:
Inflation Trajectory: By late 2025, headline CPI inflation is likely to be closer to the RBI's 4% target, but the focus will be on its sustainability and food price volatility.
Growth Dynamics: The Indian economy should be in a steady growth phase, but the RBI's stance will depend on global demand and domestic investment cycles.
Global Cues: The stance of the US Federal Reserve (likely in a rate-cutting cycle or on hold by then) and global risk sentiment will be crucial.
Domestic Liquidity: The banking system's liquidity conditions will be a key factor the RBI addresses.
2. Market Expectations from RBI (The Core Catalyst)
The price action will be driven by whether the outcome is Hawkish, Dovish, or Neutral relative to these expectations.
Consensus Expectation (Baseline): The most likely scenario is the RBI maintaining the Repo Rate unchanged with a stance of "withdrawal of accommodation" or a shift to "neutral." The focus will be on:
Growth-Inflation Forecasts: Revisions to FY26 GDP and CPI projections.
Liquidity Management: Comments on permanent vs. temporary liquidity tools.
Governor's Commentary: Tone on food inflation, global spillovers, and future guidance.
3. Key Sectors to Watch
Rate Sensitives: Banks (HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, SBI), NBFCs (Bajaj Finance), Auto, Real Estate. Maximum volatility.
Domestic Cyclicals: Infrastructure, Capital Goods. Reaction to RBI's growth outlook.
Defensives: IT, Pharma, FMCG. Could see safe-haven flows if the tone is hawkish.
[Level Interpretation / description:
L#1: If the candle crossed & stays above the “Buy Gen”, it is treated / considered as Bullish bias.
L#2: Possibility / Probability of REVERSAL near RLB#1 & UBTgt
L#3: If the candle stays above “Sell Gen” but below “Buy Gen”, it is treated / considered as Sidewise. Aggressive Traders can take Long position near “Sell Gen” either retesting or crossed from Below & vice-versa i.e. can take Short position near “Buy Gen” either retesting or crossed downward from Above.
L#4: If the candle crossed & stays below the “Sell Gen”, it is treated / considered a Bearish bias.
L#5: Possibility / Probability of REVERSAL near RLS#1 & USTgt
HZB (Buy side) & HZS (Sell side) => Hurdle Zone,
*** Specialty of “HZB#1, HZB#2 HZS#1 & HZS#2” is Sidewise (behaviour in Nature)
Rest Plotted and Mentioned on Chart
Color code Used:
Green =. Positive bias.
Red =. Negative bias.
RED in Between Green means Trend Finder / Momentum Change
/ CYCLE Change and Vice Versa.
Notice One thing: HOW LEVELS are Working.
Use any Momentum Indicator / Oscillatoror as you "USED to" to Take entry.
⚠️ DISCLAIMER:
The information, views, and ideas shared here are purely for educational and informational purposes only. They are not intended as investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instruments. I am not a SEBI-registered financial adviser.
Trading and investing in the stock market involves risk, and you should do your own research and analysis. You are solely responsible for any decisions made based on this research.
"As HARD EARNED MONEY IS YOUR's, So DECISION SHOULD HAVE TO BE YOUR's".
Do comment if Helpful.
Follow notification about periodical View
Nota
In 15 min TF Diminish the effect of Bearish Pattern which formed Yesyerday Closing Candle " EVENING STAR". Missed onky 0.25 point to Forn Bullish Engulfing.Now at 26034. Trade Cautiously as RBI MPC nearby.
Risk Advisory:
IV crush post-10:30 AM can decay premium even if spot moves slightly.
Avoid holding overnight; event risk subsides but theta accelerates.
Monitor Bank Nifty for confirmation—banking stocks will lead any policy-driven move.
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Penafian
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Penerbitan berkaitan
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak bertujuan, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat atau cadangan kewangan, pelaburan, dagangan atau jenis lain yang diberikan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca lebih dalam Terma Penggunaan.