NVDA GEX Earnings Outlook by Options

27 Mei

NVDA reports earnings this Wednesday, and it’s a big deal. A major move could impact both the indexes and broader tech sector.



The OTM 16 delta curve essentially overlaps with both the GEX profile and the expected probability zone — signaling strong confluence.

📈 Rising IV with falling call skew: Volatility is rising into earnings, while the call skew is dropping — a sign of growing interest in downside hedging/speculation.

🔷 Key inflection zone (129): Above 129, the market is unlikely to surprise. Below it, however, a domino effect could trigger increased volatility and put-side flows.

Implied move into earnings is 6.62%, reflecting binary risk expectations from the options market.

Strong gamma squeeze territory exists between 140–145, with significant call wall buildup around 140.

The nearest expiry shows a positive net GEX — supporting short-term mean-reversion or hedging flow stability above 129, at least until the earnings print.

🔴 Downside risk scenario:
In the event of a downward move, the market is most heavily hedged around the 125 level, which aligns with the deepest put support.

💡 Wheeling Opportunity Idea

ONLY IF you want to own NVDA long-term around the $130 level (even if it drops short/mid-term), this might be a great time to start the wheeling strategy.

Because earnings inflate volatility, you can sell a near-term cash-secured put (CSP) for solid premium — even on a 53DTE (July) option.

Based on current GEX levels, we’re seeing:

-Support (squeeze zone) around $125
-Call resistance around $140
-A potential upside squeeze extending to $145-$150

These align roughly with ~20 delta OTM options, so the premium is attractive.

How would I personally start this:

Sell a CSP for May 30 with the intention to get assigned if NVDA drops.
If I do get assigned, I’m happy to own shares.
Then, I sell a 60DTE covered call right after to collect another round of premium.

If I’m not assigned, I sell a new 45–60DTE put the following week — still benefiting from the relatively high IV.

👉 Remember: High IV = synthetic time value. With this two-step method, you can harvest premium twice in quick succession.

I used the same technique with INTC, and it’s been performing well.

💥 ONLY IF you want to own NVDA long-term around the $130 level (even if it drops short/mid-term)!

29 Mei

Dagangan aktif

After the earnings announcement, the price shot up, and as expected, the call resistance — which essentially marks a profit-taking level — successfully halted the sudden move.

Bingo.