- Previously, I have shorted 
NVO when it was in $75-85 when moat was weakening and then went long around $58 to $75 for 40% on the long side. Everything is documented in my two posts.
- People are asking me ifNVO is cheap or not. After cutting guidance, I believe most of the estimates for EPS about NVO are way off which would be revised downwards.
- At the same time, I believeNVO has kitchen sinked their guidance because of new CEO transition which is very common in the publicly traded company.
-NVO might not be cheap after cutting guidance honestly but not overvalued either.
-NVO could be a dead money for some time 6 months, 1 year or 2 years who knows?
- But I know that weight loss industry in general is growing overall at least till 2030 and beyond.
- Some concerns I have isNVO leadership is getting challenged by 
LLY so it could be possible that NVO might get lesser piece of the pie. However, overall piece is growing along with it so NVO should continue to grow but at a lower rate than earlier.
- Net free cash flow should grow and company might return on investment to shareholders via share buybacks?
- Finally, I am buyingNVO in increments and have bought first lot of shares in $50.xx and will continue to add more if it drops more. I think NVO can test 200 monthly moving average @ $35.
- I have marked the accumulation box in the chart for your reference.
NVO when it was in $75-85 when moat was weakening and then went long around $58 to $75 for 40% on the long side. Everything is documented in my two posts. - People are asking me if
NVO is cheap or not. After cutting guidance, I believe most of the estimates for EPS about NVO are way off which would be revised downwards. - At the same time, I believe
NVO has kitchen sinked their guidance because of new CEO transition which is very common in the publicly traded company. -
NVO might not be cheap after cutting guidance honestly but not overvalued either. -
NVO could be a dead money for some time 6 months, 1 year or 2 years who knows? - But I know that weight loss industry in general is growing overall at least till 2030 and beyond.
- Some concerns I have is
NVO leadership is getting challenged by LLY so it could be possible that NVO might get lesser piece of the pie. However, overall piece is growing along with it so NVO should continue to grow but at a lower rate than earlier. - Net free cash flow should grow and company might return on investment to shareholders via share buybacks?
- Finally, I am buying
NVO in increments and have bought first lot of shares in $50.xx and will continue to add more if it drops more. I think NVO can test 200 monthly moving average @ $35. - I have marked the accumulation box in the chart for your reference.
Nota
Plan is to build a position incrementally on major red days like today!Nota
Potential end of downtrend around $35-40 range That's where I am targeting to add heavilyNota
- NVO is like Index fund of Denmark. Similar to MAG 7 in US. Danish investors' money will flow into NVO as this is their big cap company and any big sell off for them is a buying opportunity.- Danish pension funds, investment funds are most likely to allocate sizeable portion of their funds into
NVO- Therefore, there is a floor to stock price. I wanted it to touch 200 monthly moving average to load up big time but not sure if it would happen or not. Currently, I have not built full blown position but whatever it is is completely long
NVO with 25% of the total position I wanted to build.Nota
Is this time different?- Maybe but people who bought at the bottom of the trend line in the last 30 years might have also faced the same dilemma.
- close your eyes and buy the fear!
Nota
- Oral pill is coming end of the year! Only 4 months left. Better to front load for additional source of growth!- pills are easy to consume as compared to taking injections
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Penerbitan berkaitan
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.