Oscar Health, Inc.
Panjang

OSCR (Long) - Impressive growth, with low but improving margins

187
My last healthcare idea, which is also my most recent, has gone spectacularly wrong after the stock fell precipitously on news which I was not able to source despite my extensive efforts. So, what else to do then than to jump on another attractive healthcare idea - OSCR

Fundamentals
  • The underlying growth of OSCR can only be described as impressive, with the firm growing by more than 40% every quarter (y-o-y) ever since it has gone public back in 2021 (despite already reaching over 10b in annual sales) - I left the numbers in the chart for a reference
  • The reason why its valuation is so low (0.4 P/S) compared to its peers is mainly the razor-thin margins, with EBITDA margins hovering only around 2% - but this is coming from a negative territory and most importantly, continues improving.
  • The firm just reported another stellar earnings and from the public discourse, its insurance solutions seem to steaming through the market and gaining market share
  • The main risk, which is pretty significant if realized, is political, and tied to the ACA subsidies - for a great article you can read about it here
  • However, for someone who plans to hold for the next 3-6 months (like myself), this shouldn't be an issue


Technicals
  • As mentioned, the firm recently released stellar earnings which propelled the price >20% higher. After a little consolidation, the price seems to have held its ground and is now poised to go higher
  • The stock price also broke out from a base as depicted on the chart, though I have to admit, it does not have the degree of accumulation I would prefer but the overall setup still looks very attractive
  • Momentum indicators like Stochastic and MACD are all entering positive territory, meaning we are likely only entering the upside potential


Trade
  • I entered the trade right after the breakout as I had been eyeing the stock for some time. The next few days confirmed the breakout and the stock is now seemingly heading higher, providing another good entry point
  • The low of where the stock price now consolidated also represents a great stop loss point (marked by the red line on the graph)
  • No price targets as I am just looking to watch how the price action evolves over next weeks, but breaking the previous local high would be a good point for potentially adding


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Penafian

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