OUTFRONT Media, Inc. leases advertising space on out-of-home advertising structures and sites. Its inventory consists of billboard displays, which are primarily located on the most heavily traveled highways & roadways, and transit advertising displays operated under exclusive multi-year contracts with municipalities in large cities across the U.S. and Canada. OUT has a MODERATE quantitative fundamental score (Greater than 6) with good analyst prospects (Buy and Hold ratings). Furthermore, OUT has a fair dividend pay out @ 0.20 per share/year (Approximately 1.2% of the entry cost a 16.51). Therefore, this OUT long play has shallow-value at the price levels from 16.51 - 16.23.
In this idea, we have a bat-pattern showing us that price should maintain a reversal from the previous low between 15.00 - 14.92. I expect price to descend to 16.51ish, filling the 4H gap (SEE ENTRY CHART BELOW IN THE UPDATES). I would set the stop-loss for approximately 3%; however, I'd consider averaging into a position on this trade, if price goes below the stop (I don't expect it to). Once the 0.382 target is acquired, I would sell half of my position and set trailing stop-loss runners to trail price by the 'Average True Range' of multiple timeframes. Once price has reached the 0.618 target, I would sell the other half of my position. The first target nets 23.14% (Risk-to-Reward of 7.35) and the second target nets 43.13% (Risk-to-Reward of 13.69). Averaging these percentage gains out and adding for the dividend (I would expect to hold this for at least one year), one would profit approximately 34.34% of their original investment.
Plugging in the probability for success of a bat pattern and the R:R values into our Kelly Criterion betting calculator for an account of $1000, we get;
FIRST TARGET
Probability: 0.85
Odds: 7.35
Bankroll:$1000
Calculation:
Kelly Criterion (Adjusted) - 0.8296
Bet This Much (Adjusted) - $829.59
SECOND TARGET
Probability: 0.85
Odds: 13.69
Bankroll:$1000
Calculation:
Kelly Criterion (Adjusted) - 0.8390
Bet This Much (Adjusted) - $839.04
Therefore, one should bet approximately 82.9% - 83.9% of their normal lot size. Good luck and trade safely!
In this idea, we have a bat-pattern showing us that price should maintain a reversal from the previous low between 15.00 - 14.92. I expect price to descend to 16.51ish, filling the 4H gap (SEE ENTRY CHART BELOW IN THE UPDATES). I would set the stop-loss for approximately 3%; however, I'd consider averaging into a position on this trade, if price goes below the stop (I don't expect it to). Once the 0.382 target is acquired, I would sell half of my position and set trailing stop-loss runners to trail price by the 'Average True Range' of multiple timeframes. Once price has reached the 0.618 target, I would sell the other half of my position. The first target nets 23.14% (Risk-to-Reward of 7.35) and the second target nets 43.13% (Risk-to-Reward of 13.69). Averaging these percentage gains out and adding for the dividend (I would expect to hold this for at least one year), one would profit approximately 34.34% of their original investment.
Plugging in the probability for success of a bat pattern and the R:R values into our Kelly Criterion betting calculator for an account of $1000, we get;
FIRST TARGET
Probability: 0.85
Odds: 7.35
Bankroll:$1000
Calculation:
Kelly Criterion (Adjusted) - 0.8296
Bet This Much (Adjusted) - $829.59
SECOND TARGET
Probability: 0.85
Odds: 13.69
Bankroll:$1000
Calculation:
Kelly Criterion (Adjusted) - 0.8390
Bet This Much (Adjusted) - $839.04
Therefore, one should bet approximately 82.9% - 83.9% of their normal lot size. Good luck and trade safely!
Nota
Entry Zone (16.51 & 16.26, respectively) : Nota
Still looking for an entry. May have to reassess.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.